As ICAO prepares to host its 39th Assembly in Montreal later this month – where it is hoped that a long-awaited global market-based measure (MBM) to address international aviation emissions will be agreed – the UN body has released a draft resolution which indicates that the scheme will be voluntary to begin with.
The proposed measure has been given a new acronym – CORSIA (Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) – and will be implemented in three phases. Participation is to be voluntary in both the pilot phase, which will run between 2021 and 2023, and the first phase, between 2024 and 2026. However, in the second phase, from 2027 until 2035, participation will be compulsory for all states, apart from those which meet the criteria for exemption. Those exempted will include the least developed countries, small island developing states and landlocked developing countries, plus states whose individual share of international aviation revenue tonne-kilometres (RTKs) in 2018 is below 0.5% of the global total.
States that volunteer to sign up for the pilot phase will have two options to choose from when calculating the offsetting requirements for their airlines. The first is to calculate the requirements based on operator emissions from any of the three years in the pilot phase (2021-2023), while the second is to make the calculations based on 2020 emissions.
Not everyone agrees that the proposed scheme should be voluntary. In a blog on its website, the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) says: "Whilst we in the aviation industry welcome the progress and fully understand the need to build consensus, we are cautious about several developments. We do not feel a pilot phase is necessary, because airlines and other aircraft operators will be ready and able to commence the scheme from 2020."
It adds: "Offsetting is not a new concept. Indeed, a large number of airlines already offer offsetting to passengers on a voluntary basis. What the industry does need is certainty, with a clear set of metrics defined before the scheme commences and consistently applied throughout its lifetime."
ATAG says that since 2009 it has consistently promoted "a mandatory measure covering a big proportion of international aviation emissions from day one of the scheme". It adds: "The fact that the first six years of the current proposal is now voluntary in nature is a result of the political process. We strongly encourage all states to demonstrate climate leadership by volunteering to be part of the scheme as early as possible."
So far, early-mover states that have publicly declared their intention to voluntarily participate in CORSIA in the first six years of its proposed implementation include Canada, Indonesia, Mexico and the USA, along with all 28 EU member states and an additional 16 from the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC).
Indonesia, home of the low-cost carrier Lion Air, says its ready to sign up immediately
Airbus
The EU and ECAC states say they will implement the scheme "from the start", as long as it reflects considerations such as the inclusion of a "clear roadmap for the remaining design elements to ensure that implementation is not delayed and its environmental effectiveness is ensured".
ICAO has suggested that all developed economies should volunteer to participate in the pilot phase, "in order to ensure sufficient level of coverage and environmental integrity", and that all other non-exempted states should opt in for the next phase. However, Indonesia – which under this reasoning would fall into the next-phase category – has already committed to take part from day one.
In an August submission to ICAO's Friends of the President meeting on the proposed MBM, the Indonesian government said it "wishes to demonstrate its commitment to ICAO, to other member states and to the global efforts to fight against climate change by voluntarily committing to take early action and join the scheme in its first implementation phase [from 2021] as a show of goodwill and co-operation".
Early in September, China – one of the world's fastest-growing aviation markets – issued a joint statement with the USA, pledging that both nations "support the ICAO Assembly to reach consensus on a global market-based measure this October, and expect to be early participants in such [a] measure".
But other fast-growing aviation markets, including India and Russia, have expressed opposition to the proposed scheme.
EU and ECAC member states are publicly calling for “as many ICAO states as possible, and in particular all major aviation states, to join from the beginning of the scheme, and to provide clarity on this before the end of the Assembly”.
However, it may not be immediately obvious during the ICAO Assembly who will opt in or out, or indeed who will opt in only to change their mind later on. As ICAO states in its draft resolution: "There should not be a list of volunteer states attached to the Assembly Resolution itself, and the Secretariat would make public updated information on the states that volunteered to participate in the pilot and first phases. Those states that notify to voluntarily participate in the scheme (opt in) should also be able to voluntarily opt out from the scheme.”
Also sceptical about the proposal to make the offsetting scheme voluntary in the first six years is the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). Daniel Rutherford, programme director for marine and aviation at the ICCT, says: "We estimate that an MBM where only wealthier countries opt in would miss about three-quarters of global growth past 2020, and cover only 9% of international traffic in 2030."
The ICCT puts forward the following three suggestions, which it says could help to plug this gap: "ICAO could base its exemption calculation upon all flights to and from a country regardless of where a carrier is registered, as recommended by industry. It could also tighten the exclusion criteria for a mandatory MBM, either by reducing the RTK numerical threshold or by aligning the method of exempting countries and excluding flights.
"Finally, the system could be designed so that uncovered emissions growth due to country exemptions is offset by carriers participating in the scheme, an idea advocated by environmental NGOs, but opposed by industry."
ICAO's draft resolution says the CORSIA will be reviewed every three years from 2022, to allow "informed decisions on whether it is necessary to make adjustments to the next phases of the scheme".
In the concluding remarks of its draft resolution, the organisation says "significant work has been undertaken by ICAO and its member states, in co-operation with the aviation industry and other stakeholders, in responding to the request by the 38th session of the Assembly to develop a global MBM scheme for international aviation".
It notes that the phased implementation and the distribution of offsetting requirements outlined in the draft text "continue to be the most crucial component that the Assembly is invited to further consider... with a view to adopting the best possible consensus text at the Assembly toward the full operationalisation of the scheme".
With the ICAO Assembly to take place in Montreal between 27 September and 7 October, there is not much longer to wait and find out whether the world can reach consensus on how to regulate international aviation emissions.
Source: Flight International
