Kevin O'Toole/GENEVA
THE INTERNATIONAL Air Transport Association (IATA) is likely to press for a delay in the implementation of proposed new aircraft noise and emission standards, which it estimates could cost the airline industry as much as $50 billion.
Recommendations on new standards are due to be made in December at the third meeting of the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP), the environmental arm of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO).
IATA's environmental co-ordinator, Leonie Dobbie, admits that some form of new regulations are virtually inevitable. Instead of attempting to put a block on new rules, IATA is therefore likely to focus on limiting potential damage by seeking a delay in implementation. Dobbie says that IATA will formulate its "formal position within the next few months".
To date, the CAEP working groups are carrying out cost/benefit analyses on three proposals for cuts in aircraft noise, based on reductions at three points around an airport: under the take-off flightpath, to the side of the runway and under the approach.
The most stringent "4:4:2" option, which proposes 4dB cuts for take-off and sideline with a smaller, 2dB, reduction for approach, has been pushed by the airports, but IATA raises concerns over its technical feasibility and economic impact.
IATA also questions the proposed timescale for any new standards. Studies are looking at dates of 1998 and 2003 for the rules to come into effect for new-aircraft certification, with a halt to production for existing types which fail to meet the requirements being called five years later.
Worst estimates suggest that the most severe noise option on a 1998 timescale could cost the air-transport industry up to $27.5 billion. Even without a phase-out date for in-service aircraft which fail the new rules, IATA warns that the resale value of the existing Stage 3 fleet could fall by 15-20%.
Proposals on cutting nitrous-oxide engine emissions by up to 40% could also have an impact of around $25 billion on the existing world fleet, IATA warns.
Despite the economic cost and marginal environmental improvement expected from the proposed reductions, Dobbie concedes that political pressure will make some change imperative. The European Commission, which has its own draft proposals for a blanket 3dB reduction, is expected to press ahead with legislation if ICAO fails to make a decision.
IATA acknowledges privately that the industry faces the political choice of either pushing for less stringent rules in the short term or trading more stringent rules in return for delaying implementation.
At least one 3:0:3 compromise option for noise reduction is already being investigated ahead of the CAEP working group reports, which are due for submission to ICAO by October.
Source: Flight International
