Aircraft on the ground may be at risk from a number of perils including natural catastrophes, such as wind storm or earthquake, or deliberate acts of violence where parked aircraft may be specifically targeted. However, the actual exposure can vary considerably from airport to airport and even from hour to hour.
Lloyds Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS) describe a number of catastrophic events that could significantly impact the insurance industry. These RDSs include a number based on natural perils including RDS 8 and 9: California earthquake – Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Although aircraft parked in the open on the ramp are, in most cases, at less risk of damage from an earthquake, the value of the aircraft at Los Angeles or San Francisco can well exceed $5 billion. However, the actual exposure at the two airports, reflecting their traffic patterns, is different, with the market value of aircraft on the ground at Los Angeles being, typically, about twice that at San Francisco.
Flightglobal's ground accumulation data shows that the peak exposure time at both airports is in the late evening, at around 10pm, but at Los Angeles this then rapidly decreases so that it is at its lowest during the early morning hours. After about 6am exposure at Los Angeles gradually increases throughout the day, building back to a new peak in the evening.
At San Francisco, although the peak exposure time more or less matches Los Angeles at 10pm, there is then only a gradual reduction during the night and exposure is still relatively high at 6am. However, it then falls rapidly to its lowest point between 7am and 9am and stays relatively low throughout the day, only increasing again after about 7pm.
Over the years there has been a number of attacks at airports where significant numbers of aircraft have been damaged or destroyed either by accident or as the result of being deliberately targeted.
Two airports that might be considered at risk of attack are Cairo and Karachi. The value of aircraft on the ground at these airports at any time is far less than at the two Californian airports but can still approach $1 billion, in market value terms, during peak times.
Karachi's peak exposure time is at 9am but this then falls rapidly to a low at around midday before climbing slightly in the early afternoon. Exposure then falls back later in the afternoon before climbing again in the evening.
At Cairo, the peak times are at 7am and between 9pm and 11pm. Exposure falls back after midnight but remains relatively high throughout the night. The lowest exposure time at the airport is during the afternoon.
Notes: Values shown are aircraft market values; the insurance values (agreed values) can be assumed to be significantly higher. Data is for scheduled operations only, and is held at the individual flight level so that analysis can be performed for specific airlines and/or aircraft types
Source: Cirium Dashboard
