Everybody in the rotorcraft industry knew that 2016 would be a difficult year, but last January you could still discern traces of optimism; the first green shoots of recovery would soon be visible, they said.
Sadly, things did not quite go to plan: 2016 saw the lowest order intake across the industry since 2008, with manufacturers receiving bookings for 541 civil and parapublic helicopters over 1.3t, a 15% fall on the previous 12 months, according to figures released by Airbus Helicopters.
As Guillaume Faury, the Marignane, France-headquartered manufacturer’s chief executive, points out: “We thought that 2016 would be stable compared with 2015, but it was even lower.” He describes it as “probably the most difficult year of the last decade”.
It is worth remembering too that sales in 2015 had already tumbled compared with the previous year.
Faury’s comments are echoed by his counterpart at Leonardo Helicopters, Daniele Romiti, who says the past 12 months were “challenging” for all the sector’s participants, who were “impacted by the weakest market performance in years”.
“This situation made competition among key players even tougher, both in the commercial and in the military domains,” he says.
At Sikorsky, which has a smaller presence in the civil market than its rivals, offering just two helicopters, there is a similar view.
“Overall I think the market is certainly depressed,” says Dana Fiatarone, vice-president commercial systems and services, noting that the prolonged downturn in the oil and gas market, to which Sikorsky is particularly exposed, “has taken its toll on commercial helicopter sales”.
“There is certainly pressure on the business, and sales and order volumes are down in the segment,” he says.
Sikorsky secured orders for offshore-configured S-92s, as well as for the smaller S-76D, during 2016, Fiatarone says, but also saw success in other segments with its 12t-class heavy twin. These include emergency medical services, VIP transport, and search and rescue.
The latter has been a particular success story for Sikorsky, notably in the UK, where it has supplied the majority of rotorcraft to Bristow Helicopters for a contract with the government to provide country-wide SAR coverage.
Bristow had planned to operate just 11 S-92s, but certification and service-entry issues with the AgustaWestland AW189, also selected for the contract, has seen the Sikorsky twin used as a more-than-capable interim solution.
Fiatarone says it is trying to get a sense from the oil and gas industry and operators of the state of the market, but acknowledges that during his 12 years with the manufacturer this is the “deepest” downturn he has seen.
“I think there was some hope early on of a quick V-shaped recovery but as time has gone on we are seeing a much shallower recovery,” he says.
It is difficult to address the oil and gas market without referring to the sea of troubles washing over the Airbus Helicopters H225.
A crash in April 2016, traced to a gearbox fault, killed 13 crew and passengers aboard a Norwegian-registered H225 operated by CHC Helikopter Service.
The H225 was initially grounded in most jurisdictions but flight restrictions have since eased. However Super Puma helicopters – including the AS332 L2 – are still banned from commercial operations in the crucial markets of Norway and the UK.
The manufacturer’s safety case for a return to service comprises a number of safety measures including a tightened inspection regime and replacing one version of a critical gearbox component.
Although there is widespread geographical acceptance of these measures, the fact that Norway and the UK are still holding out means that only about 10% of the Super Pumas configured for oil and gas missions have returned to service.
It is also worth noting that even if the two nations had fallen into line, over-capacity in the North Sea is such that the AS332 L2s and H225s would not be required anyway.
However, Airbus Helicopters’ Faury believes the Super Puma has a future in the North Sea. “The H225 has a clear role to play in that environment with its unique characteristics and performance,” he says.
“It has started return to service and we are working to make this happen in the rest of the world. We believe that oil and gas industry cannot rely on a single helicopter type. We need to ensure a smooth return to service and rebuild confidence in the North Sea.”
No return to service will happen without first achieving a “return to trust” with the entire offshore industry, including rig workers and flightcrew, he says.
But he notes that there is “still significant overcapacity” in the offshore market. “Don’t count on a significant uplift for oil and gas helicopters in the coming years.”
Faury’s comments on the over-reliance on one type – the S-92 – were underscored in early January when UK accident investigators discovered a potentially dangerous fault with a bearing in the Sikorsky’s tail rotor assembly. It was found following an incident in which a CHC-operated aircraft was forced into an emergency landing on an oil platform after losing tail rotor authority.
There has been speculation that the travails with the Super Puma might prompt Airbus Helicopters to accelerate the development of the H225’s successor, the X6, which is currently at the concept stage.
However, Faury says its timeline for service entry early next decade has not changed. “It is a long-term investment so we are not that much influenced by the short-term ups and downs,” he says.
“We keep moving forward at a good pace but we do not change our perspectives for the long-term introduction of new types.”
Both Airbus Helicopters and Leonardo Helicopters have seen some success in the North Sea market with their respective H175 and AgustaWestland AW189: Belgian operator Noordzee Helikopters Vlaanderen now has three of the former based in Aberdeen and Danish firm Bel Air Aviation flies a pair of the Italy-built helicopters from its base in Esbjerg.
“We believe the AW189 has the right mix of technology, safety, cost effectiveness and productivity that the [oil and gas] market requires,” Leonardo’s Romiti says.
“Most long-range offshore operations require an average of no more than 16 passengers. The AW189 allows up to 30% operating cost savings compared to larger 19-seaters today.”
A third competitor in the super-medium class should arrive towards the end of 2018, as Bell brings its 525 Relentless to market.
Slightly bigger than either of its rivals, its maximum take-off weight is 9.1t. Bell, like Leonardo, believes that the Relentless can take market share from the heavier H225 and S-92.
However, first is the looming hurdle of returning its certification fleet to flight; Bell grounded its two remaining prototypes in the wake of a fatal crash involving the initial flight-test article in July 2016.
The manufacturer is confident that the two prototypes will be back in the air “in the next several months”, pending the outcome of a US National Transportation Safety Board investigation.
Better news for the airframer comes from its 505 Jet Ranger X programme, which achieved certification in late 2016. First customer deliveries should begin shortly as production ramps up at its Mirabel, Canada factory.
The Mirabel plant could produce as many as 200 aircraft per year, says programme manager LaShan Bonaparte.
“We want to be at 150 by the end of next year, although by the end of 2017 I would say we will probably be at around half that, or a little less,” she says.
Certification of the 505 was responsible for a “significant increase in order activity” at the tail end of last year, according to Scott Donnelly, chief executive of Bell parent Textron, as it converted letters of intent into firm commitments.
That sales uptick has given Bell confidence for the immediate future, says Bell chief executive Mitch Snyder. “When you introduce a product into the market that has tremendous capability then the sales will come,” he says.
In addition, he believes that the market’s recovery will roughly coincide with the arrival of the 525, which “in a couple of years” will be “done and ready to go”.
Elsewhere, development activities are continuing on the skid-equipped AW109 Trekker – certification is on track for “this year”, says Romiti – as well as on the AW609 civil tiltrotor, which has now resumed flight testing following its own crash-induced hiatus; certification is still targeted for 2018.
Airbus Helicopters continues to accumulate flight hours on the two prototypes of its medium-twin H160 as it looks to ensure validation next year. Faury says the aircraft hit their milestones “on time” in 2016, with cold-weather trials currently under way in Canada.
A third flight-test aircraft will join the fleet later this year and manufacturing activities will begin on the type’s purpose-built assembly line. In addition, the manufacturer has begun taking tentative commitments for the type and has already signed a “significant number” of letters of intent for “all variants” of the helicopter, says Faury.
But at Sikorsky, which this November will celebrate two years under Lockheed Martin’s ownership, there is no sign of any new programme in the offing.
Although the main attractions of the company for Lockheed were clearly its military programmes and relationship with its big US domestic customer, access to the civil market was another driver for the deal.
So far, it is manifesting its civil ambition through investments in Sikorsky’s support network and progressive improvements to its existing products.
“But,” says Fiatarone, “If you are looking for the next big [Sikorsky] product announcement then you’ll have to be a little bit patient.”
In the near term, it is working on the sort of evolution to its helicopters common to every manufacturer, but “a few years out”, it will “continue to invest in autonomy and intelligence applications”, he says.
Looking to the longer term, Sikorsky has been talking to its customer base about potential future requirements “to make sure that we have all the data to support that significant investment”, says Fiatarone. But he stresses that both the S-76D – “still a product that’s in demand” – and the S-92 – which is “really hitting its stride” – are “terrific platforms”.
“The S-92 has got some long legs left in it,” adds Fiatarone, and will continue in production, he says, “for the next several decades”.
Source: FlightGlobal.com
