Kate Sarsfield/LONDON
Paul Lewis/SINGAPORE
THE 1996 AEROSPACE calendar is replete with Asian-based trade shows and exhibitions. Aerospace China, Aero India and Malaysia's Airportex '96 are but a few. It is proof, if proof were needed, that this geographical region is steadily becoming the most important commercial-aviation market in the world outside the USA.
Industry analysts are predicting that the territory will account for around 50% of world traffic by 2010. According to Airbus Industrie's 1995-2014 market forecast, the Asian market will require nearly 3,800 new aircraft, 66% of which will be wide-body jets. Fleet capacity will grow from fewer than 400,000 seats in 1996, to 1.3 million, overtaking North America as the world's largest market. China alone is expected to account for some 26% of the Asia-Pacific fleet.
The Orient Airlines Association's (OAA) 1994-5 figures show that, compared with major US and European airlines, most Asia-Pacific carriers - with the exception of Japan Airlines (JAL) - have remained financially buoyant throughout the recession. According to the OAA, the total operating revenue of its 15 international airline member topped $45.1 billion in 1995, up by 16.2%. Net profits for the 1994-5 fiscal year jumped by 308% to $1.31 billion. This improved financial performance is beginning to translate into major new aircraft orders for Western manufacturers. Singapore Airlines (SIA), Philippine Airlines (PAL) and, more recently, Malaysian Airlines (MAS), have between them placed orders for 91 Boeing and Airbus aircraft, with options for a further 48, worth a total of $19.4 billion. JAL recently placed an estimated $780 million order for five Boeing 777-300s, and China Airlines (CAL) a $750 million order for six Boeing 737-800s, with options for another nine.
NEWCOMERS
When the eighth Asian Aerospace show opens on 6 February, organiser Reed Exhibitions will be hoping to reflect the mood of growing optimism. The show, for which Flight International is the official magazine and co-sponsor, will be held at Changhi Airport, Singapore. To date, Reed has received bookings from more than 930 exhibitors, and is hoping to attract more than 25,000 visitors during its six-day run. Although the number of exhibitors has not increased from the previous show in 1994, the 1996 event will see some countries represented in their own right for the first time. The newcomers include China, which is emerging as a huge aerospace market. On display will be the Karakorum 8 (K-8) jet trainer/light attack aircraft, produced in partnership with China National Aero Technology Import and Export Corporation (CATIC), Nanchang Aircraft Manufacturing of China and the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex. The Czech Republic display will feature jet-trainer manufacturer, Aero Vodochody, and regional-aircraft producer Let Kunovice.
Among the aircraft being given Asian Aerospace debuts will be the 777. Boeing will be keen to capitalise on the success of the twinjet within Asia and, along with several other aircraft manufacturers also exhibiting at the show, will be touting for business from China's 35-plus carriers, following the Civil Aviation Administration of China's decision to relax an 18-month old moratorium on new-aircraft orders. CAL and the Taiwanese flag carrier, Eva Air, are evaluating the 777, Airbus A330/340 and the McDonnell Douglas MD-11.
Boeing and Airbus will be keen to promote their respective A340-800 and 777-100X concepts, following Cathay Pacific's interest in new ultra-long-haul aircraft.
The wares of most of the world's regional-aircraft manufacturers will be on display at the show. These include the Dornier 328-100, the IPTN CN-235, Bombardier's Dash 8-300 and Raytheon's Hawker 800. Aero International Regional (AI(R)) will be exhibiting for the first time under its new title. AI(R), which was officially formed on 1 January, brings together the ATR, Jetstream and Avro RJ turboprop and regional-jet operations of Aerospatiale, Alenia and British Aerospace into a unified marketing and support company. AI(R) will display a range of aircraft, including the RJ-85, Jetstream 41, ATR 42-500 and ATR 72-200.
Producing a 100-seat entry-level passenger jet-airliner has caught the imagination of many of Asia's aspiring aerospace producers. While IPTN appears determined to go it alone with the development of the N2130 twinjet, joint- venture partners China and South Korea are looking for a Western technology organisation to help with their planned $2 billion AE-100 project.
Cathay Pacific and SIA, together with JAL, have voiced an interest in Boeing's planned 747-500/600.
ENGINE OF COMPETITION
The battle to place engines in the Asia-Pacific region has been no less fierce. Following the success of the Rolls-Royce Trent 800 (having its second consecutive appearance at Asian Aerospace) with SIA, MAS, Thai Airways International and Cathay Pacific, the company finds itself in the front of the race to power the large twinjet airliners in south-east Asia. Although the smaller Trent 700 has been popular with airlines in the region, including Cathay Pacific, Drangonair and Garuda Indonesia, R-R's push has come too late in the day for other markets, as Pratt & Whitney has already cleaned up in Japan and South Korea with its PW4084, and the General Electric GE90 is now entering service with Southern China Airlines.
The burgeoning general-aviation (GA) market in Asia has attracted several GA manufacturers to Asian Aerospace '96. Canadair and Cessna will display, respectively, the Global Express (in mock-up form) and Citation X business jets for the first time in Singapore. Asian interest has primarily focused on larger, long-range corporate jets, and regional success has been recorded for the new Gulfstream V, Canadair Challenger 604, Hawker 1000 and Dassault Falcon 9000EX. Malaysia, in particular, is proving a particularly rewarding market, with MAS chairman Tajudin Ramli and businessman Amin Shah ordering GVs.
At the smaller end of the market, Learjet and Cessna will be hoping to capitalise on the success of their aircraft in the region. In February 1995, SIA placed a $56 million order for two Learjet 31As and four model 45s to replace its existing fleet of 31s. Korean Airlines operates a fleet of Citation Vs at its training school on Chenju Island.
The GA presentation at Asian Aerospace will also include the Canadair CL-415 amphibious water bomber, being flown on a world demonstration tour; the Bell Helicopter Textron twin-turbine Model 430 and newly certificated single-turbine 407.
Asia's manufacturers have long participated in joint programmes, including that of the Eurocopter EC-120 light helicopter, which Eurocopter manufactures in association with Singapore Technologies Aerospace and CATIC. Some nations are now eager to design and build their own aircraft. Japan is one example, proposing its FS-X fighter aircraft and YS-X regional jet, while Indonesia's IPTN is planning its N2130.
Asian Aerospace '96 has drawn a plethora of military-aircraft manufacturers to Singapore, with defence spending in the region at an all- time high. Japan has reportedly set aside '4.845 trillion ($46 billion) in its 1996 defence budget, and China - which spent 63 billion Yuan ($7.56 billion) in 1995 - is likely to increase its budget by a further 17% in 1996. Military spending is also rising in south-east and east Asia by between 6% and 10% a year.
McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Systems will be promoting its AH-64D Longbow Apache helicopter, while Denel of South Africa will be looking for sales of the Atlas Aviation CSH-2 Rooivalk attack helicopter. Both manufacturers are competing for orders from the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF). The RMAF's five-year defence plans involve a requirement for an initial 12 helicopters, consisting of between six and ten logistical-support helicopters and between five and nine single-engine scout helicopters.
The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) plans to purchase 16 McDonnell Douglas F-18Cs/Ds. The $400 million contract is dependent on the purchase by the RTAF of the Hughes AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missile (AMRAAM). If the order does proceed, it will mark the first sale of the AMRAAM in Asia.
Airbus Industrie, Boeing, MDC and Israel Aircraft Industries will be competing for an RSAF contract for two jet-powered tankers. The manufacturers are offering tanker/transport versions of their respective A310, 767, KDC-10-30 and modified Boeing 707 aircraft to replace the existing fleet of ten Lockheed Martin C-130s and four KC-130Bs. Final selection of the aircraft is not due until April.
With the Philippine and Indonesian air forces also in the market for affordable secondhand fighter aircraft, manufacturers will be keen to make the right impression.
The official launch of Samsung's KTX-II light fighter/trainer programme is expected at Asian Aerospace '96. The South Korean-based company is believed to be holding discussions, with Lockheed Martin over investing a 20% stake in the programme.
The military debutantes include, if only for a brief stopover, a Northrop Grumman B-2 Stealth bomber. The $835 million aircraft recently hit the headlines following a threatened $550 million cut in funding by the US Government.
As the aerospace market in the Asia-Pacific continues to grow, companies the world over will be eager to invest in the region. Swiss-based operator, Jet Aviation, for example, recently acquired DHP Aviation at Seletar Airport in Singapore. According to the company's vice-president and general manager, Theo Staub, "...there is big potential for growth in the Far East".
According to US Department of Commerce statistics, US companies operating in Singapore between 1990 and 1992 received an average 29% return on investment. This region is competing successfully with the already fragile economies of the West by using its attractive business environment and trading infrastructure to entice companies.
Source: Flight International