Peter La Franchi/CANBERRA
THE Replacement of the Royal Australian Air Force's (RAAF's) 71 F/A-18s is the country's most important but most difficult expenditure priority during the next two decades with cost estimates now placed at up to A$20 billion (US$32 billion).
That is the conclusion of a new public discussion paper on the way forward for the Australian Defence Forces, Defence Review 2000.It reiterates warnings that Australia's Project Air 5376 Hornet Upgrade will not resolve the RAAF's loss of regional air power dominance to newer-generation aircraft. It also confirms, for the first time, that the aircraft are experiencing considerable airframe fatigue problems after 15 years of service.
The paper says Australia is "losing parity with the best regional air forces because of improvements to their radar, missiles and electronic warfare capability-Air forces beyond South-East Asia are outclassing our capability. Within a few years, we will not be able to operate against such units in front-line air combat roles at an acceptable level of risk to our pilots and aircraft."
The discussion paper, issued on 27 June, forms part of the development process for Australia's new Defence White Paper. It reveals Australia is facing a massive financial burden of funding A$80-100 billion in replacement costs for a range of major land, sea and air platforms over the next 20 years.
The potential A$20 billion price tag for the Hornet replacement programme, designated Project Air 6000, doubles estimates released by the Australian Department of Defence. The new figure is based on a combined replacement programme for the F/A-18 and 35 F-111C/G strike aircraft.
The paper flags Australia's intention to proceed with further F-111 upgrades, including "bringing the whole fleet-up to a common standard" by modernising the 'G' variant avionics suite. That upgrade had been scheduled for funding decisions in May, but was deferred due to budget problems.
The paper also reiterates the option of replacing the F-111 with "long-range air to ground missiles launched from other platforms". Senior Australian Defence Department officials have confirmed that the statement means Australia is again looking at the option of submarine-launched cruise missiles.
The F/A-18 fatigue problems are concentrated on the centre-box fuselage. The discussion paper says fatigue is expected to force the front-line fighter from service by 2015 at the latest, but also says that consideration is being given to airframe upgrades.
"One solution might be to join an airframe renewal programme the US Navy is considering for its much larger F/A-18 fleet. If the US Navy decides to replace important structural components, we can extend the life of our aircraft. If it does not, we need to take some important steps to ensure that we retain an appropriate level of air-combat capability."
Decisions on the future of Australia's Lockheed AP-3C maritime surveillance aircraft are to be made within the next five years.
Source: Flight International