US negotiators seem optimistic that a recent thaw in informal talks with China could lead to formal negotiations and a new bilateral this year. Washington has no expectation of "open skies," but hopes to gain more access to China with fewer restrictions for more US carriers.

Last year Beijing seemed uninterested in changing the three year old air accord, but warmed at the year-end to the idea of a more liberal agreement. The present deal limits each side to three airlines, 27 weekly frequencies, and no more than five gateways. It also restricts fifth freedoms and third country codesharing.

Washington would like to add more US carriers. American, Delta, and United Parcel Service are all keen to join Northwest, United, and Federal Express on routes to China. Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern Airlines all serve the USA. The USA also wants more nonstop services, capacity, routes, and flexibility in codesharing.

Beijing's new willingness to discuss these requests stems from at least three influences. First, China's international carriers, like other Asian airlines, see more immediate potential in markets beyond rather than within Asia. A restrictive US bilateral limits their growth in key transpacific markets.

Second, China Eastern would like the US bilateral to allow designation of another airline so its new China Cargo Airlines, launched in partnership with the China Ocean Shipping group, could operate all-cargo routes transpacific.

Finally, with Shanghai's new Pudong Airport to open October 1, Shanghai aspires to regain some of its former prominence as a financial and commercial centre.

Source: Airline Business