Honeywell Aerospace expects 2006 to set a business jet delivery record of more than 800 aircraft. But this could be a peak, with a cooling off expected until the end of the decade, when deliveries could resume a climb towards 1,000 aircraft a year by 2015.
“The industry recovery that began in 2004 has gained momentum in 2005,” says Frank Daly, vice-president, marketing and product management, unveiling the US aerospace supplier’s 14th annual business aviation outlook. If economic expectations hold, he says, next year “should be a record year for business jet deliveries, topping the previous peak in 2001”.
While the 2005 survey forecasts record deliveries next year, it also records a decline in operator purchase expectations for the first time in four years. Operators surveyed expect to replace or expand 21% of their fleets over the next five years - down from 25% last year – generating demand for 3,000-3,400 aircraft, excluding fractionals.
While increasing in all other regions, purchase expectations in the dominant North American market fell to 16%, Honeywell says, because of recent orders and deliveries and concerns about rising fuel and insurance costs and the possibility of airspace user fees. As a result, deliveries are expected to flatten off at around 800 a year to the end of the decade, before resuming growth and climbing towards 1,000 a year by 2015.
Manufacturer backlogs had passed the 1,900 aircraft mark by mid-year, Honeywell estimates, with fractional ownership accounting for 30-35% of orders. While share sales have slowed, shareowner flying is up and jet card sales are soaring. “Fractional fleets will likely continue to experience very high utilization, resulting in capacity constrains and even aircraft shortages if current trends continue,” says Daly.
Overall, the company is forecasting delivery of 9,900 business jets worth $156 billion between 2005 and 2015. In addition, Honeywell is projecting deliveries of 4,500-5,500 ultra-light or personal jets over next 10 years (see box). The 10-year delivery forecast by market segment is:
[] Long and ultra-long range: more than 1,500 aircraft in the Bombardier Global, Dassault Falcon 900/7X and Gulfstream G450/G550 class;
[] Large: more than 1,000 aircraft in the Bombardier Challenger 604, Falcon 2000EX, Embraer Legacy and G350 class;
[] Medium and medium-large: more than 2,500 aircraft in the Bombardier Learjet 60, Challenger 300, Cessna Citation Sovereign/X, Falcon 50EX, G150/G200 and Hawker 800XP/Horizon class;
[] Light and light-medium: more and 2,900 aircraft – an increase of 23% over last year’s survey – in the Learjet 40/45, Citation Bravo/CJ3/Encore/XLS and Hawker 400XP class;
[] Very light: more than 1,900 aircraft in the Citation CJ1/CJ2/Mustang, Embraer VLJ Beechcraft Premier I and Sino Swearingen SJ30-2 class.
GRAHAM WARWICK
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For the first time, Honeywell has included the general aviation segment in its business aviation outlook, forecasting demand for 4,500-5,500 ultra-light or personal jets over the next 10 years. The company includes in this market segment includes the Adam A700, Diamond D-Jet and Eclipse 500, but not the Cessna Citation Mustang or Embraer VLJ, which it places in the next category up. The cut-off between very light and ultra-light jets in Honeywell’s survey is at around the $2 million price mark. “We base the distinction more around the end user,” says Charles Park, director market analysis. “Below that price you get into owner-pilot aircraft like the Eclipse and A700. These are not typical flight-department aircraft, although there is some cross-over.” The general aviation survey involved asking 600 operators, flying 750 aircraft of 1975 vintage or newer, whether they planned to buy an ultra-light jet in the next 10 years. Traditional corporate flight departments indicated a potential 10-year demand for 800-900 aircraft, Honeywell says. In addition, the owner-pilot survey forecast demand for another 3,700-4,600 aircraft, excluding air taxis and fractionals. |
Source: Flight Daily News
