US manufacturer begins to weigh up impact of month-long industrial dispute with machinists after settlement

The damaging month-long machinists strike that paralysed Boeing is over, but at what cost? Officially, the company says it will not know for some time – detailed analysis of the impact and the details of how to orchestrate its recovery only began, it says, on 22 September as the machinists voted to return to work.

Unofficially, however, the company already knows; deliveries of at least 30 aircraft hit immediately, a hefty series of penalty payments to customers that will now continue through the year in some cases, disruption throughout the supply chain and an expensive production process to crank back into life.

Total costs are unofficially, and probably conservatively, estimated at around $50 million all told. Then there is the serious question of how best to bring production back on line without the chaos that came in the wake of the even more damaging 69-day long machinists’ strike in 1995. The shut down was “orderly” and so, Boeing knows to its cost, must be the start-up. Parts and subassemblies for the lines at Everett and Renton were being stockpiled all over the world in some cases, and the strike ended just in time to prevent much more serious long-term production issues.

It is not only here that Boeing is learning lessons the hard way. In less than a month it must also sit down at the table and start talks with the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace (SPEEA), the union representing around 17,700 Boeing engineers and technical employees in the Puget Sound area plus a further 800 in the drastically reduced workforce at Boeing Wichita.

With the gradual reduction in manual touch-labour jobs on the assembly line at Boeing over the past decade, the SPEEA headcount actually now exceeds that of the roughly 18,000 machinists who work for Boeing. The two groups have differing demands, and the SPEEA negotiations will reflect that. The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) walked out on 2 September mostly over arguments on pensions, health care insurance payments and job security.

The engineers within the SPEEA membership are paid an average of more than $20,000 more a year than the average machinist, while the SPEEA technicians earn almost $4,000 more a year on average. The SPEEA talks are therefore likely to focus on pay increases as well as keeping a tight rein on medical premiums, rather than greater pension benefits.

In the end, the machinists’ strike was largely settled over Boeing’s final agreement to increase its pension payments by just $4 a month for each year of service. This raised the agreed monthly pension to $70, and appears to be have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. Although it was less than the $80 targeted by the union, it was $4 more than Boeing’s best and final offer when the strike was called. Although the sum appears trifling, Boeing is well aware this $4 will translate into multi-billion pension liabilities downstream for the company that faces paying around $1.5 billion in this area in 2005 alone.

But Boeing is not alone in walking the tightrope between rising pension and healthcare costs on one side and, along with the rest of corporate America, is even more afraid of the shorter-term damage of prolonged strike action.

It is unclear if the strike caused any potential business to be switched to Airbus, but that extra $4 in all likelihood stopped most of the industry from ever finding out

GUY NORRIS/LOS ANGELES.

Deliveries to slip after machinists' walkout

Overall, assuming that the last deliveries were made on or around 1 September, Boeing had delivered around 216 aircraft in 2005. The bulk of these were 737s, still in the process of going through a production rate ramp-up with 159 delivered, including at least four BBJs. The second largest tally was made up of 777s of which 30 had been delivered. Nine were 717s built at Long Beach, which was unaffected by the strike, nine were 747s, seven were 767s and two were the final 757s which had been in storage since completion in 2004. According to details obtained by Flight International, Boeing originally planned to deliver at least 101 additional aircraft by year-end, taking it close to the 320 figure projected by the company earlier in 2005.

Ryan Big

These comprise five more 717s and was to also embrace at least 69 737s, including one US Navy version and four BBJ1/2s. The list also consists of six 747-400F/ERFs, four 767-300ER/ERFs and 17 777-200ER/300ERs. In terms of individual customers, the operator with the most in the pipeline in sheer numbers appears to be Ryanair, which has 10 737s due for delivery by the end of 2005. Southwest Airlines follows closely with seven 737s, with AirTran, Aeromexico, Qantas and Hainan all due to receive five 737s apiece over the next three months.

Other 737s are scheduled for delivery to West Jet (four), Continental (three), THY (two), Air China (three), Shanghai (one), China Eastern (two) and Shandong (two). In value terms, the two most heavily affected are Emirates and Etihad with five 777s apiece, due for delivery by year-end, while close behind is Air New Zealand with three scheduled 777 deliveries, Air France (two), ANA (one 777, two 767s) and Vietnam Airlines (one 777). Of the six scheduled 747s, two are destined for Singapore Airlines Cargo, two for Korean Air, one for Cargolux and one for Air China Cargo. One 767 is due each to LAN Airlines and JAL.

Assuming a general slide of the delivery sequence to the right, and a minimal recovery of lost time before December, there appear to be at least 21 aircraft at risk of not being delivered by the end of the year as currently scheduled. The companies that might possibly see completions slip into the first month of 2006 include Ryanair (five 737s), Qantas (two 737s), Southwest, Air China, THY, ANA, Aeromexico and Hainan Airlines (all one 737 each) and General Electric Commercial Aviation Services (two 737s for Skymark Airlines and China Southern). Late-year widebody deliveries possibly affected could include a single 747-400F for SIA, one 777-200ER for Air New Zealand, two 777-300ERs for Air France and two -300ERs for Etihad Airways.

Source: Flight International