Guy Norris and Paul Lewis/SEATTLE
Boeing has been forced to delay the 747-500X/600X programme by at least four months because of continuing market uncertainty and the late definition of the General Electric/Pratt & Whitney joint-venture engine.
The stretched, rewinged 747 was expected to be given the go-ahead later this month, with the -600X entering service in December 2000. Because of the delay "-the second half of 2001 is very realistic", says Boeing Commercial Airplane Group president, Ron Woodard.
The new timetable gives Boeing an extra six months to develop, build and certificate the aircraft, but it also allows Airbus to close the gap with the rival A3XX project to two years.
Boeing claims not to be concerned about its narrowing margin over the A3XX caused mainly by the size of the investment required by the airlines. "I'm not worried about it," says Woodard. "If we can't build a bigger aeroplane after 26 years to where a [year-less] gap makes a difference, then we don't belong in the market. The gap's nice, but it is not the reason to be precipitous."
Boeing quotes "around $200 million" for the new models.
The company admits that it had set its sights originally on obtaining a preliminary go-ahead in September. "We thought people were pretty lined up at the Farnborough air show," says Woodard. Although Malaysia Airlines and Thai Airways International have signed firm "purchase agreements" for up to eight -600s and five -500s, plus six options, the US company is still waiting for carriers such as British Airways and United Airlines to commit to the programme before going ahead.
Boeing president Phil Condit says: "I would have guessed it might happen faster - it hasn't." Condit also denies suggestions that the UK airline had put its 747-X decision on the "back burner". He says: "They've told us that next year this aeroplane is their number one priority."
Delays over the final definition of the GE/P&W GP7000 engine meant that the first firm offers could not be made until October. "That moved it to the right by four months," adds Woodard.
Despite the groundswell towards a 1997 launch, Woodard says that it is not a certainty. "But the odds are better than 50:50." Estimated cost is put at between $5 and $7 billion for tooling and development. "We believe it will cost Airbus [for the A3XX] $15-$18 billion, " he adds.
Airline sources, meanwhile, do not expect a launch until May "at the earliest". Some of the airlines within Boeing's 19-strong advisory group are disputing the company's claim of a 10% cut in direct operating costs (DOC) over the -400. Lufthansa has calculated the figure to be nearer 8.5%, whereas Boeing claims the DOC saving to be anywhere between 8% and 16%, depending on configuration.
The performance estimates are based on wind tunnel data. These have also showed that take-off thrust of 338kN (76,000lb) per engine would be required, almost 4.5kN less than expected.
Source: Flight International
