As the Asia-Pacific market continues to grow to become the world's largest, Boeing is forecasting that the Oceania sub-region will require 37% more aircraft than the airframer previously predicted.
The increase to a $120 billion market with 920 aircraft, from last year's forecast of 670, will more than double the existing fleet size in Oceania, which Boeing says was 420 last year. The Oceania region includes Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice-president of marketing Randy Tinseth attributed the growth to three anticipated regional nuances.
"First and foremost we expect there to be more replacement demand than we saw last year," Tinseth says. Worldwide, Boeing expects that of the 18,890 aircraft in service in 2009, only 5,400 will remain in service by 2029 - with none of the aircraft operating last year in Oceania still flying in the region by 2029.
Boeing expects 44% of new aircraft to the region to replace old models and 56% to be for growth.
Second, Boeing expects low-cost carriers to grow robustly.
Boeing also expects the 787 to drive sales. Air New Zealand is the launch customer for the 787-9 with eight on order while the Qantas Group has ordered 50 787s.
Boeing expects 68% of the new aircraft in Oceania to be single-aisle jets, 28% twin-aisle, 3% large-capacity aircraft and 1% regional jets. The average value, at list prices, is expected to be $130 million.
"The single-aisle market, like it is in the rest of the world, will be the driving force for units in the marketplace followed closely by what's happening in the twin-aisle marketplace," Tinseth says.
Boeing's projection indicates there were will be around 28 new 747- or A380-sized aircraft in the region by 2029. Only Qantas, with its remaining A380s, has large types on order.
Source: Flight International
