Paul Duffy/Moscow
THE RUSSIAN DEPARTMENT of Air Transport (DAT) is confident that, despite the recent relaxation of regulations governing their importation, Western airliners will not take a major share in the Russian marketplace.
Some 35 Western aircraft are in service with Russia's air operators. These include two helicopters, ten executive jets and 23 airliners. The DAT expects the number to grow, but mainly in the categories for which there is little Soviet/CIS/Russian equivalent - business aircraft and high-capacity long-range airliners. By the turn of the century, the DAT expects Western aircraft to account for 6-7% of the Russian market.
The studies to support these figures were undertaken by the GosNII GA - the DAT's state scientific and research institute of civil aviation. Traditionally, the GosNII GA has monitored the operation of all civil-aviation aircraft and equipment, and maintained detailed records of each aircraft in service with Aeroflot units during the Soviet era.
Today, it continues to maintain close liaison with Russian airlines, the maintenance industry and aerospace manufacturers, but, with a need to earn money, aircraft operators are now paying for this information to be gathered for only "between 60% and 70% of the current aircraft fleet".
The GosNII GA recommended the issue of Russian certification for the Airbus A310 and the Boeing 767 because according to its director, Vitali Goriatchev, "...there are no equivalent Russian/CIS aircraft".
Russia's aviation industry is critical of any airline which operates a Western aircraft, pointing out that the West has not allowed Russian/CIS aircraft to be sold in countries controlled by US Federal Aviation Administration and European Joint Aviation Authorities rules.
This is combined with the understandable Russian airline preference outlined by Mikhail Bulanov, technical director of Vnukovo Airlines, that "...we know and understand Soviet aircraft. They were built to be tough, and that is something we need with under-developed airports, poor runways and difficult weather conditions. Of course, many companies would like to have a fleet of new Boeings or Airbuses, for their reliability and low operating costs, but few will have the money to buy or lease them; or to pay the costs of training crews, technical staff and operating personnel; or to acquire the stocks of spares and the necessary ground equipment."
LOWER UTILISATION
Mikhail Gromov, a GosNII GA specialist in extending the service life of Russia's fleet, says that, with the huge fall-off in traffic volumes over the past five years (Russia's airlines carried only 30.8 million passengers in 1995, against 90.7 million for the Russian Aeroflot units in 1990) that this means a lower utilisation of Russian airliners. "Instead of flying aircraft just one-third full, our airlines have reduced their schedules, as most aircraft fly with perhaps 70-80% of seats occupied," he says
"In the Soviet era, economics were not a priority, and it suited the government of the day to keep the industry busy producing aircraft, and so shorter service lives were acceptable. It was not considered necessary to modify aircraft or to extend service lives. Just as a Boeing 747, designed for 60,000 flight hours can stay in service with over 90,000h flown provided that the operator pays for the necessary maintenance, so too can one of our aircraft and, until traffic volumes increase again, our present fleet will be able to cope," Gromov adds.
Today, Russia's design bureaux and aircraft-production factories are seeking other ways to keep the current fleet in service until the industry can reorganise itself and the financial packages which will allow airlines to buy or lease aircraft.
Igor Samoilov, GosNII GA's chief of market assessment, cites Yakovlev's programme to improve the Yak-42. "Already it has increased maximum take-off weight [MTOW], which has allowed the aircraft to carry more fuel, and redesigned the cabin layout to increase passenger numbers from 100 to 120. Now, with a new cockpit [on the 142], improved systems, a smaller cockpit crew, better cabin access and a new auxiliary power unit, it's a good aircraft. They are now working on a new version with a change of engine to meet Category 3 noise requirements and well beyond, and give a higher MTOW."
IMPROVED ECONOMICS
He continues: "Similar programmes are being developed for the Tupolev Tu-154M and the Ilyushin Il-62M and Il-76T/TD, which should improve operating economics and meet Cat 3 requirements. The Tu-154B will soon have a conversion-to-cargo programme, while we are confident that the long-delayed programme to re-engine the Il-86 with CFM International CFM56s will soon get the go-ahead".
He says, that the first Tupolev Tu-204s were certificated for an MTOW of 94t, now it is 101t and, at the beginning of February, the first Tu-204-200 was completed. It has an MTOW of 110t, and is powered by Rolls-Royce RB.211-535E4s.
Victor Kirin, GosNII GA's director of aircraft operational data, says that, in 1995 only half of the low number of aircraft built by Russia's factories was sold, because the airlines had insufficient money to buy them, and the factories did not have the financial packaging needed, to allow them to be sold.
"Russia's need for new aircraft will be held off for a few years by the low traffic volumes. Where airlines have enough money they will buy or lease Tupolevs, Ilyushins, Yakolevs and Antonovs from other CIS and former Soviet Union countries, and from Eastern Europe. Already aircraft are coming back here from the Czech Republic, Poland, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia, and from Cambodia and Mongolia, and from the military."
The picture of Russia is very different from that of Central and Eastern Europe, and from countries such as Vietnam, where there has been a rush to add Boeings, Airbuses and other Western aircraft.
Four Russian airlines are understood to be negotiating to add Western aircraft. One carrier has asked for its name not to be disclosed - while Transaero is seeking "up to three McDonnell Douglas DC-10s", which it expects to introduce into service later this year. Another is negotiating for two Boeing 747-100s or 200s for long-range service. Volga Dnepr has expressed openly its plans for a 747 freighter and Aeroflot Russian International Airlines, pending delivery of its new fleets of Il-96M/Ts and Tu-204s, is reportedly close to adding some Airbus A310s to bridge the gap - already it operates six A310s (two jointly with Diamond Sakha), two Boeing 767-300ERs leased from GECAS and one DC-10-30 leased from McDonnell Douglas. Kras Air operates one DC-10-30 (a second is expected to be added on passenger services, mainly to the USA). Baikalavia flies a Boeing 757 leased from International Lease Finance to replace the Tu-154 lost in an accident in 1994. Sakha Avia Trussi flies a single Boeing 737-20 from Sakhalinsk Island and Avialinii Tatarstan operates a Boeing 727-100, mainly on Government flights.
The major user of Western aircraft is Transaero, with five leased 737-200s and five leased 757s. Vice-president Grigori Gurtavai sees the airline as being at "about half its strategic size". There is a likelihood this carrier may add another ten to 15 Western aircraft.
Few other airlines, however, will have the financial or marketing ability for some time to make good commercial use of expensive Western aircraft.
Unless Russia's aircraft industry fails to solve its problems and get new aircraft and new financing operational within the next two to three years, that 6-7% is likely to remain the medium-term market for imported aircraft.
Source: Flight International