Analysts Teal Group forecasts slightly more than 6,900 business aircraft valued at $95.2 billion will be delivered over the 10 years to 2011. This represents a small increase over its forecast of just under 6,900 deliveries between 2001 and 2010, and reflects the widely held belief the market will continue to grow despite its present softness. But Teal analyst Richard Aboulafia cautions that manufacturers' margins could be reduced by pricing pressure from fractional ownership companies, which hold about half of the industry's backlog. Restructuring of the fractional industry itself could impact on demand for aircraft, he says. Teal forecasts Bombardier will take 25.5% of the market over the next 10 years, with Gulfstream holding 25.4%, Cessna 19.2%, Dassault 18.1% and Raytheon 10%. Compared with last year's 10-year forecast, Cessna, Dassault and Gulfstream have all increased market share at the expense of struggling Raytheon.
Source: Flight International
