Tim Furniss
A new report on the magnitude of the expendable launch vehicle (ELV) market will interest Boeing, Lockheed Martin and other launcher organisations at the Show. The worldwide ELV market will generate $97 billion revenues over the next 20 years said the report by Forecast International.
Forecast reports that about 2,600 satellites will be launched into geostationary orbit (GEO), low Earth orbit (LEO) and other orbits, up to 2019.Despite the bullish prediction, there will be many casualties. The market could be overloaded with launchers and not enough satellites to launch them.
The demise of the Iridium LEO mobile phone satellite system has created pessimistic predictions about the future of the several proposed systems, as well as the Globalstar satellite system already operational in orbit.
This is making it difficult for hopeful LEO satellite companies to raise finance and also making it difficult for LEO launchers, such as the EADS Eurockot, to find enough launches to survive.
Eurockot had 12 options to fly Iridium replacement satellites, representing a major portion of its launch business.
In addition, satellite manufacturers are making better spacecraft, capable of lasting much longer in space, primarily in GEO, which is reached by heavy-lift boosters such as Ariane and Atlas.
Increased
Lifetimes of 10 years are now being increased to 15 years or more, meaning that the need for replacement satellites may not be as great.
Despite this, new GEO communications satellites and military, science and remote sensing spacecraft will provide plenty of other business, particularly for the larger launchers.
Source: Flight Daily News
