Paul Lewis/SINGAPORE
The Asian economic bubble has burst and the perceived regional "arms race" has, for now, come to a grinding halt. With local currencies and stock markets in freefall and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) administering fiscal first aid, most South-East Asian defence-procurement provisions are rapidly drying up. Despite this forlorn state of affairs, arms suppliers remain hopeful that business will eventually return to normal.
However long the region's economic doom and gloom prevails, it has afforded Asia's military a breathing space to take stock of its recent spending spree. Regional defence expenditure peaked at over $286 billion in 1995 and 1996, making Asia the second-largest arms market after the Middle East. The accelerated acquisition of arms, however, has dangerously outstripped the capacity of many countries to absorb new equipment properly.
This has resulted in some cases in fleets of gleaming new fighters and advanced jet trainers spending disproportionate amounts of time on the ramp for want of qualified operators and tail-end support.
With the seemingly never-ending offers of newer and better hardware no longer a distraction, Asia's senior military echelons can now focus their attention on bringing the software end of the business up to speed.
The following survey of Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) attempts to examine the capabilities and challenges faced by individual air arms. Aside from summarising recent acquisitions, it also seeks to identify the effect Asia's economic difficulties are now having on planned purchases and on future programme requirements
BRUNEI
Defence Budget (estimated operating)
Brunei $466 million ($258 million)
Armed forces 5,000
The oil-rich Kingdom of Brunei is one of the few ASEAN states to have escaped the full brunt of the currency meltdown of the past four months and, as such, remains one of the area's few bright sales prospects. Boasting a population of just 300,000 and a land mass of only 5,765km2 (2,225miles2), it is demographically and geographically constrained.
Brunei has signed several wide-ranging defence-procurement memoranda with the UK Government, but the pace of ordering has been sluggish. Diplomatic and industry observers are hoping that the appointment on 1 September, 1997, of former helicopter pilot Maj Gen Haji Abidin as the new chief of the defence force will expedite matters.
The Royal Brunei Armed Forces (RBAF) Air Wing was until recently largely a rotary-wing affair, but is now branching out with the acquisition of four Pilatus PC-7 turboprop trainers and a single IPTN CN-235 utility transport. Contract negotiations are also finally under way with British Aerospace for an initial six BAe Hawk 100 advanced trainers and four 200 single-seat light combat aircraft.
Brunei is also negotiating for weapons to arm its new acquisitions, including Raytheon AGM-65 Maverick and AIM-9L Sidewinder missiles for the Hawks, and helicopter-launched Boeing AGM-114 Hellfire missiles for the four recently delivered Sikorsky S-70 Black Hawk utility machines.
A lack of trained pilots and the Government's reluctance to base armed aircraft at Bandar International Airport have delayed the Hawk deal and a planned order for three maritime-patrol-aircraft variants of the CN-235. Both projects require extensive training and support components and deliveries hinge on the completion of a new purpose-built RBAF airbase.
Brunei's reluctance until now to accept manufacturer offers of foreign contract instructor pilots will similarly impede any envisaged future progression on to either the Lockheed Martin F-16 or Saab JAS39 Gripen. Other long-term considerations include an air-defence-radar command-and-control capability, helicopters for Brunei's three planned offshore patrol combatants and upgrading its air defences with the BAe Jernas system.
CAMBODIA
Defence budget (1998)
281 billion riel ($82.6 million)
Armed forces 88,000
Civil war once again engulfed this impoverished South-East Asia nation in early July, temporarily scuppering its formal entry into ASEAN. The subsequent fighting damaged an air force VIP Dassault Falcon 20. The military has since lost of one of two recently delivered ex-Czech air force Aero Vodochody L-39ZA jet trainers in an accident and is believed to have lost all three of its Pilatus Britten-Norman Islanders. The delivery status of four Israeli-refurbished Mikoyan MiG-21 fighters and four more L-39s remains unclear.
INDONESIA
Defence budget (1996) $2.3 billion*
Armed forces 313,000
Indonesia is among the worst affected by the recent economic turmoil, with the rupiah having suffered a 75% slide in its value against the US dollar since July 1997. This, along with pressure from the IMF for cuts in spending, has severely sapped the spending power of the Indonesian armed forces. Even before the financial crash, Jakarta only spent a comparatively modest 1.8% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defence.
With the currency in freefall, the threat of social strife and a presidential election due in March, the planned $600 million purchase of Russian weaponry appears to be on the backburner. Local officials suggest that the only way the deal for 12 Sukhoi Su-30K Flankers and eight Mil Mi-17-IV helicopters could conceivably go ahead would be for Russia to accept a greater proportion of barter trade.
Russia's Rosvooruzheniye arms-export agency has also been seeking to interest Indonesia in an accompanying weapons package, including Vympel R-77 (AA-12) active-radar-guided air-to-air missiles, Zvezda Kh-31A (AS-17) air-launched anti-ship missiles (ASM), and possibly the NPO Mashinostroyenia Yakont (SS-N-26) surface-launched ASM. Whether Indonesia can raise sufficient cash or barrels of palm oil to pay for any of this remains to be seen.
US industry, however, has been quick to exploit the prospective Russian deal to show Washington that Indonesia can and will shop elsewhere. Jakarta has also used it to deliver a political snub to the US Congress and Department of State, in the wake of refusals to sanction the sale of secondhand Northrop F-5E/Fs, F-16A/Bs and Bell UH-IH helicopters.
The $265 million sale of a third batch of 16 Hawk 200s to Indonesia has escaped a similar fate, despite opposition from within the ruling UK Labour Party. The aircraft, due for delivery in 1999/2000, will supplement previous purchases of 16 Hawk 200s, eight tandem-seat 100s and 16 surviving early-build Mk53 trainers.
Indonesia is also modernising its 12 F-5E/Fs with new avionics under a $40 million contract with Sabca, while the Emerson APS-159 radars on the fighters is being locally upgraded to the V7/V8 standard for AGM-65 Maverick missile compatibility. One F-5 requires a new wing, gear and engines, after an accident.
One driving force behind Indonesia's need for fighters is the defence of its Natunas gas field in the South China Sea, the waters of which are the subject of overlapping sovereignty claims. To improve surveillance of the 4,000km (2,160nm)-long archipelago, Indonesia is acquiring 20 more surplus Australian N22/N24 Nomads, upgrading the sensor suite of its Boeing 737 Surveiller and IPTN C212 patrol aircraft and plans to order six CN235 MPAs.
Improving mobility is the military's other major concern, to counter external threats or one of the numerous separatist rebellions which perforate the 13,700-island chain. The air force is looking for additional secondhand Lockheed Martin C-130s and recently received five ex-United Arab Emirates de Havilland DHC-5s, via an IPTN trade-in on new CN235s.
Indonesian science and technology minister Bacharuddin Habibie is trying to persuade the army to take 17 unsold IPTN licence-built Eurocopter AS322L Super Pumas. The military is understood to prefer Sikorsky S-70s, but in lieu of approval is scouting around for 28 secondhand civil Bell 212s.
MALAYSIA
Defence budget (1996) $2.8 billion*
Armed forces 114,500
The economic situation is little better in Malaysia, though the country has yet to go cap-in-hand to the IMF. The Government has trimmed defence spending by 10% and placed virtually all major planned procurements on hold. The military, nonetheless, has enjoyed several years of double-digit growth during which the Royal Malaysian Air Force's (RMAF) front-line inventory has been re-equipped.
Malaysia since 1994 has taken delivery of 28 Hawk 100/200s, 18 MAPO MiG-29N Fulcrums and eight Boeing F-18D Hornets. Other recent purchases include five new C-130H-30 transports, four Raytheon Beech King Air B200T MPAs and two S-70 Black Hawk VIP helicopters, while six IPTN CN-235-220 utility aircraft and a MiG-29 sensor/weapons upgrade are in the pipeline.
The critical challenge now faced by the RMAF is finding the personnel to operate and support the new equipment. Some recent initiatives include plans for a second flying school to try to fill the more than 30% shortfall in trained pilots. There are also plans to establish a new civilian-run organisation to take charge of intermediate-level maintenance needs.
Overseas companies have also begun to court local partners in an effort to convince Malaysia of the virtues of privately contracting out support. Rolls-Royce has announced educational initiatives, while the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) is showing interest in outsourcing training. There is also the suggestion that the new Bombardier-run NATO Flying Training in Canada programme might attract Asian subscribers.
In terms of further new equipment, the only item showing any real sign of activity is the RMN's planned order for six Westland Super Lynx 300. South African hopes of moving ahead soon with a Denel CSH-2 Rooivalk sale hinge on high-level political patronage in Kuala Lumpur and a creative financing deal.
Other requirements, such as a utility/search-and-rescue (SAR) helicopter to replace the RMAF's aged Sikorsky S-61 Nuris and an Army Air Corps scout machine, remain on hold. Industry talk of an upgrade for Malaysia's 16 F/RF-5E/Fs persists, but would appear to be at best a long shot. The RMAF's post-2000 wish list is focused on another 12 Hawks, with three attrition replacements also needed, a further 12-16 F/A-18s and possibly a second MiG-29 squadron.
MYANMAR (BURMA)
Defence budget (1992) $800 million (estimated)
Armed forces 350,000
Myanmar's battle against international trade sanctions was given a major boost in mid-1997 with its controversial acceptance as an ASEAN member. Much of the world, however, regards the country as a pariah state in terms of arms sales, although since 1990 Myanmar has received more than 30 Chinese-supplied Chengdu F-7 fighters, for which it is now discussing an Israeli-assisted upgrade. China is reportedly assisting with the construction of a new air base in Manerpaw and continues to train local pilots at Namzarng. Myanmar has also recently received new Mil Mi-17s from Russia.
PHILIPPINES
Defence budget (1997) $1.5 billion*
Armed forces 106,000
The Philippines, until recently, had one of the smallest defence budgets per capita in the ASEAN. With the closure of US bases and Chinese encroachments in the Spratly Islands, Manila passed in late 1996 a 15-year 164.5 billion peso ($3.65 billion) military-modernisation budget. Dividing this up among some 90 different programmes was always going to prove a challenge, but, following the recent 40% slump in the peso against the dollar, the military now needs to perform nothing short of a cash conjuring act.
Despite budgeting for an expected drop in the exchange rate to 25-30 pesos to the US dollar, few planners in 1996 could imagine the Philippine currency plummeting to as low as 45 to the dollar. The newly appointed armed forces chief-of-staff, Lt Gen Clemente Mariano, faces some difficult decisions as a result.
Top of the air force's list of priorities is a new multi-role fighter, which alone could consume as much as $600 million. An invitation for best-and-final bids is expected to be issued this month to six finalists, Boeing (F/A-18C/D), Dassault (Mirage 2000-5), Israel Aircraft Industries (Kfir 2000), Lockheed Martin (F-16C/D), MAPO-MIG (MiG-29) and BAe/Saab (Gripen).
Other pending tender decisions include six new air-defence radars, while circulars of requirements are in the approval stage for six MPAs and nine shipboard helicopters for the navy. The latter has been directed to select a common platform with the air force to meet its requirement for three SAR machines.
SINGAPORE
Defence budget(1997) $2.9 billion*
Armed forces 53,000 (active)
The Singapore stock market and currency have largely escaped the ravages of the past few months, and the Government says that its planned defence expenditure will be untouched. The country has a population of only 3 million and occupies an area of just 633 million km2, but allocates 6% of its GDP on national defence and boasts one of the largest air arms in the region.
The Republic of Singapore Air Force's (RSAF) constraints are trained manpower and airspace. The military relies on conscripts and reservists, modelling itself on the air arms of Israel, Sweden and Switzerland. To overcome its close confines, the RSAF bases a mix of its own and leased F-16s in Arizona and Boeing CH-47D Chinooks in Texas, with Agusta S211 trainers and Super Puma helicopters in Australia. This will expand shortly, with McDonnell Douglas A/TA-4S Skyhawks going to France and Boeing KC-135R tankers to Kansas.
Through a series of incremental foreign-military sales, direct commercial purchases and leases, the RSAF by around 2001 will have acquired 22 Block 52 F-16Cs and 20 two-seat Ds, plus seven Falcon Up-standard F-16A/Bs. Attention will next turn to finding a next-generation replacement for 80 A-4s and 49 recently upgraded F-5S/Ts. Candidates include the F/A-18E/F, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter EF2000 and the proposed Block 60 F-16.
Nearer-term decisions include the selection of a new attack helicopter this year and the acquisition of a second batch of six CH-47Ds. Other rotary-wing programmes in the planning stages consist of a Super Puma cockpit upgrade and a Bell UH-1H replacement.
THAILAND
Defence budget(1998) Bhat 80.9 billion
($1.52 billion as of 8 January)
Armed forces 254,000
Thailand's economic implosion ranks alongside those of Indonesia and South Korea in severity, and its once-powerful military has not escaped the financial fallout. A succession of defence cuts and a 54% dive in the baht's value against the US dollar have, in a matter of months, effectively slashed the Thai defence budget from the equivalent of $4.2 billion to just $1.52 billion.
"For the first time in history, there are Thai generals and admirals going around telling people to turn off lights and air conditioners," reports one Western defence source. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that the Royal Thai Navy is now struggling to raise $500,000 to re-activate ten give-away ex-US Navy Kaman SH-2F Seasprites.
The prospect of the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) finding $93 million to pay its next scheduled installment on eight F-18C/Ds is even more remote. Bangkok accordingly has sent Washington a letter requesting either bridge financing for a three-year stretch of the $392 million deal, or that the fighters now on the production line be sold to a third country. There would appear to be few suitable takers.
The RTAF for now will have to soldier on with its 36 Block 15 F-16A/Bs and 45 F-5A/Bs and E/Fs. An initial $45 million contract for an F-16 mid-life upgrade has been cancelled and plans for a further avionics enhancement of the F-5s have also been shelved. Other prospective programmes now under the hammer include a planned purchase of 36 new army utility helicopters and 14 RTAF replacement SAR machines for the air force,.
VIETNAM
Defence budget (estimated 1994) $400 million*
Armed forces 572,000
Vietnam's admission into the ASEAN organisation in mid-1995 represented a major step forward for one of South-East Asia's poorest developing countries. Despite a thaw in relations with China, ownership of the Spratly and Paracel islands remains a vexing issue. To back up its claims, Vietnam ordered five Sukhoi Su-27SKs and a single two-seat UB in 1994.
Delivery of a second batch of six Su-27s suffered a setback at the end of 1997 with the crash of an Antonov An-124 and the loss of the second pair of fighters on board. According to ITAR-TASS, Vietnam plans to acquire 24 Su-27s by 2001. The air force, in the meantime, is reportedly seeking spares from Bulgaria for its 125-150 MiG-21PF/bis fighters. Other recent purchases from Russia include Kamov Ka-32 naval helicopters and two Kh-35 (SS-N-25) ASM-equipped Type 124RA missile boats.
*Defence expenditure is US dollars at the then exchange rate.
Source: Flight International
