AIRBUS INDUSTRIE MAKES A compelling case for a developing market for a very large airliner - not least that its rival, Boeing, obviously thought it worthwhile spending so long trying to convince the airlines to launch its own big airliner, the 747-500/ 600. No matter how compelling the manufacturer's case, however, it is the public which creates travel demand and the airlines which fill it.
Despite the fact that Boeing ultimately decided not to launch, Airbus maintains in its latest Global Market Forecast that there is a potential demand for over 1,400 new airliners of more than 400 seats to be satisfied between now and 2016. It contends that the US manufacturer's withdrawal was driven not by the airlines' lack of desire for large airliners, but by their lack of desire for a 747 derivative.
The Airbus contention is that the market will need much larger airliners whether or not the airlines have yet acknowledged that the need exists, and whatever the status of current large-airliner projects. It defines a large airliner as one having more than 400 seats in a three-class configuration - something which can just about be achieved with the current Boeing 747-400 (into which the Japanese domestic airlines routinely fit more than 500 people in two classes already).
Its view is that some of the projected 1,400-plus demand for a large aircraft will be satisfied by the 747, some by its own A3XX, and perhaps some by a replacement project from Boeing. While Airbus can express a hope that it might sell 650 or more A3XXs (indeed, would have to, to recoup the investment required to launch it in the first place and make a profit), it can do no more than hope until the airlines start buying and using such aircraft. Put another way, there is no market for this aircraft yet, because there is no aircraft - just as was the case for the 747 in the late 1960s. The question is: is Airbus wrong to try to create the market by creating the aircraft, or is Boeing wrong by waiting for the market to create the need for the aircraft?
Boeing has unrivalled experience in creating a market through creating an aircraft with its phenomenally successful 747. It is against the background of both the initial pain and the later glory of that project that Boeing has decided not to proceed with the 747-X, but to stick with relatively minor developments of the 747 in the meantime. Boeing is not alone, however, in having the experience of creating a new market with a new aircraft. Back in 1969, when Boeing was staring into the abyss with the 747, Airbus launched the hitherto-unimagined widebody twin with its A300. It is against the background of having successfully created that vibrant market that the company is pushing ahead with the A3XX project.
So both have the experience on which to base the judgement to launch or not to launch a new large-airliner project - and with that similar experience have come to very dissimilar judgements. That probably says more about the corporate cultures of the two organisations today than it does about the size of aircraft the world's airlines will be operating in 20 years' time. Boeing is the established civil-market leader; Airbus is the young pretender. Boeing has products in all market sectors above 100 seats; Airbus does not. Boeing is trying to absorb another huge aerospace company (McDonnell Douglas); Airbus is still trying to become one.
For Boeing, to launch a completely new large-airliner project now would be to endanger the remaining prospects for its unique 747 in return for securing a position in an as-yet-unproved market for something bigger. For Airbus, to not launch its A3XX would be effectively to concede that it would never be a full-range contender and, worse still, leave Boeing with its lucrative 747 monopoly.
For both, such decisions must be finely balanced, but for both the ultimate judgement will lie elsewhere. The travelling public is not concerned about the corporate culture of a large organisation; nor is it concerned with how to raise $8-12 billion to build a new airliner. If it decides to travel in the numbers suggested by today's predictions, then the airlines will have to have new large airliners, whether or not they like the Airbus or Boeing offerings. In conceding that, Airbus may be closer to its future market than is Boeing.
Source: Flight International
