Despite surging narrowbody orders, the clamour is growing louder for next-generation replacements.
The manufacturers had been predicting that new engine technology providing the necessary performance gains would be available for service entry in around 2015. But the signs now are that this has shifted to the right and we are unlikely to see any all-new single-aisle offering from either airframer for at least 10 years.
And why should they rush to replace a product that keeps selling in big numbers? The market is currently well balanced as the A320 and 737 are closely matched - unlike in the widebody market where Airbus had stolen a lead over Boeing with its A330, prompting Boeing to respond with the step-change 787.
While there is no pressing incentive for the airframers, there is among the engine makers. Pratt & Whitney - once the short-haul darling - is eager to revive its glory days with its geared turbofan. It has already been selected to power the two emerging 100 seaters, and has been evaluated by Airbus for the A320 successor.
While GTF offers significant gains, there are indications that a more ambitious response will be necessary and the "paridigm shift" offered by open rotor technology is being touted.
So whichever airframer makes that first move will have to think very carefully. What might begin as a timing advantage could turn quickly to obsolescence as a newer engine technology rebenchmarks the definition of a "next-generation narrowbody".
Source: Flight International
