Shooting down satellites seems so passé, or at least so very Cold War. After several years of fighting wars against terrorists and insurgents, a proper satellite shootdown recalls such musty strategic terms as "space race" and even "mutually assured destruction".
Yet, here we are, with two failed military satellites having been exorcised from their orbits via obliteration within the past 14 months.
The first test, on 11 January 2007, shot down China's reportedly crippled Feng Yun 1-C, a polar-orbiting "weather" satellite operated by the military. The newly developed kinetic kill vehicle - lofted presumably by a DF-21 medium range ballistic missile - demonstrated a new level of offensive capability for China's military.
The act drew fierce protests by US and European governments, mainly due to the mess of debris in low-earth orbit created by China's unannounced anti-satellite test. However, memories of Cold War-style intrigues may be instructive. US military officials might be excused if they at least wondered which of China's secret cards remained unplayed.
In mid-February, another faltering military satellite required immediate destruction, but this time the shooter would be the US Navy, wielding a recently fielded missile defence system - the upgraded Aegis-class destroyer USS Lake Erie.
The successful hit last week by a Raytheon SM-3 interceptor may not bear the mark of a true anti-satellite weapon, as the altitude of the descending target - a spy satellite - may have drifted beneath the minimum range for low-earth orbit.
Regardless of its true intentions, the test served to re-assert the US military's long-dormant capability to destroy satellites beyond earth's atmosphere. This show of force may or may not trigger a reciprocal response, but one can only guess what may be the next move for an established space power, such as Russia, or even one of the world's aspiring space powers, such as India.
One thing is certain: such continued sabre-rattling among major technological powers will accelerate the pace toward the full weaponisation of space. The scale of the technical sophistication required to hold an adversary's space assets at risk - and, not to mention, the size of the consequences at stake - could easily plunge the great powers into a second Cold War.
And it could happen faster than you think.
Source: Flight International
