JAPAN'S JOINT YS-X/New Small Aircraft (NSA) feasibility study with Boeing is unlikely to be completed by the 1 March deadline, amid growing uncertainty about the market and financial viability of the programme (Flight International, 15-21 February).
The 90- to 110-seat-aircraft study is still at the preliminary stage and the projected cost of research and development, together with manufacturing, has still not been settled, according to senior industry sources.
Japan Aircraft Development (JADC) is understood to be increasingly hesitant about launching the programme in the face of strong competition and poor market demand. Its only previous attempt at producing a commercial passenger aircraft, the Nihon YS-11 turboprop, was not a financial success and the Japanese are determined not to repeat the experience.
JADC wants to keep the cost of the YS-X to a minimum by maximising commonality with the Boeing 737. Boeing, however, is reluctant to agree to Japanese project leadership and majority control of an aircraft which more would be little more than a "derivative of the 737".
Linked to the YS-X/NSA study is the proposed 108-seat Boeing 737-600 successor to the existing -500 aircraft. Boeing sources say that it is highly unlikely that both aircraft would be developed and that, if the YS-X/NSA does not go ahead, the 737-600 is a fallback option.
The 737-600 is a derivative of the recently launched -700/800, with the same-sized wing, but featuring a 2.39m shorter fuselage. Boeing concedes that the YS-X/NSA, with a smaller wing, would be more a efficient aircraft in the 90-to 110-seat class, but that the 737-600 has more appeal for -700/800 operators.
The YS-X/NSA is also facing possible competition, from a proposed joint South Korean-Chinese development, of a similar size 100-seat aircraft. The initial agreement between South Korea and China to develop a 100-seat aircraft calls for the inclusion of a Western manufacturer and a third Asian country in the programme as minority shareholders.
Boeing, in response, is conducting a joint study with China and South Korea into the development of the aircraft, separately from that of the YS-X/NSA.
The two Asian countries are also holding preliminary discussions on co-operation with Daimler-Benz Aerospace and Aerospatiale.
Source: Flight International
