DAVID FIELD WASHINGTON & MARK PILLING LONDON
Worries are beginning to emerge that the congestion woes suffered by the USA and Europe in the late 1990s could return if investment in airport and air traffic control (ATC) capacity is curtailed as a result of the current traffic downturn.
The fall-off has helped dramatically to improve ATC delays in both continents, and agencies there would like to keep them that way. To meet such ambitions, groups from across the industry have re-started calls for sustained infrastructure investment. In the UK, for example, the Freedom to Fly coalition of airlines, airports, unions and private industry has gathered to lobby government for decisions on extra capacity, and in particular a new runway in the south-east of England. "A no-growth solution is simply sticking our heads in the sand," states the group, which delayed the launch of its initiative originally planned just days after 11 September.
The difficulty for capacity planners is traffic recovery scenarios vary from a quite rapid snap-back to turgid growth over the coming few years. "Nobody has any kind of profound long-term picture," says Peter Morris, IATA chief economist. However, the "best guesses" from carriers see them expecting both the transatlantic and transpacific remaining weak for the next couple of years, with traffic only back to 2000 levels in 2004 at the earliest.
However, intra-European and Asian traffic should be stronger, with some recovery seen this year and traffic reaching around 20% above 2000 levels by 2005, he says. If capacity enhancement in these regions is reined-in during this time, such a scenario would mean a return to the congestion crunch that was seen in 2000.
In the USA, Congressional attention has not swayed from the approach of renewed gridlock. "We on Capitol Hill know that we cannot let go sight of the need to continue on capacity-enhancing measures, and the committee will be returning to the such matters as streamlining the environmental-review process," says David Schaeffer, chief aide to the House Aviation Subcommittee.
A recent major study by the General Accounting Office - an arm of Congress - warns that even the ambitious FAA expansion project begun in May would not be enough when traffic comes back. Congress is a likely instigator of a push for capacity because members will want to avoid a repetition of the summers of 1999 and 2000, when flight delays led to a consumer revolt and massive public pressure on Congress to re-regulate the airlines.
Source: Airline Business
