MURDO MORRISON / LONDON
This year's Dubai air show will see a return of exhibitors that deserted the event suddenly two years ago after 11 September. Will the region's resurgent prosperity and ambitions translate to orders?
In summer 2001, organisers were poised for the most successful Dubai air show yet. The region's airline sector was booming, with Emirates at the vanguard; business aviation buoyant and defence manufacturers looking forward to contesting lucrative procurement contests. Then came 11 September, followed by Afghanistan. Panicked by security worries and the prospect of shrivelling marketing budgets, several high-profile exhibitors pulled out at short notice. They included Gulfstream, Honeywell, Rockwell Collins, Smiths and TAG. Many more reduced their presence, either in terms of personnel or stand size. Despite organisers' attempts to present a defiant "business as usual" message, the absence of so many big names hit the show badly. "It hurt," says Clive Richardson, chief executive of Fairs & Exhibitions, which runs Dubai.
This year, these exhibitors are back. The relative success of the 2001 event against the odds meant "a lot of companies realised they had made a mistake", says Richardson. Although Dubai is not a big orders show, it is the main chance for the world's aerospace companies to oil relationships with the region's movers and shakers, and many locals regarded the decisions to stay away - often taken in boardrooms against the wishes of staff on the ground - as a slap in the face. Says one industry veteran: "Memories are long in that part of the world. There is a lot of bridge-building to be done."
The eighth show, which takes place at Dubai's Airport Expo on 7-11 December, has been the fastest-selling, says Richardson. So far 83 chalets have been reserved, compared with around 60 for the previous two shows. Exhibition floorspace and the static display will be at least the same size as 1999, previously the record holder. A flurry of activity in the Gulf's air transport and business aviation sectors is fuelling much of the demand, says Richardson. Although consolidation among the region's flag carriers seems inevitable, for now, Gulf Air, Emirates and Qatar Airways are bullish about growth. Several start-up airlines have also declared their hand, including Sharjah's Air Arabia and Abu Dhabi's Etihad, both from the United Arab Emirates, and MenaJet, a low-cost carrier owned by Bahraini and Saudi investors. One of Emirates' just-delivered A340-500s will be on Airbus's static display, while the manufacturer will fly one of its A340-600s, of which Emirates has ordered 18. Boeing will show its 777-300.
In business aviation, several ventures have launched, including Royal Jet, an Abu Dhabi-based executive charter company, which began operations in May and is launch operator for Gulfstream's G300. The opportunity in business aviation is reflected in the number of aircraft likely to make an appearance. They include five business jets from Bombardier (which is also taking the CRJ900 regional jet): the Challenger 300 and 604, Learjet 45XR and 60, the Global Express and a mock-up of the Global 5000. Embraer will have two Legacy business jets on its static display. Gulfstream, absent in 2001, will be displaying the G200, G300 and G550, while Dassault will have the Falcon 900EX and 2000EX. Cessna operator Bexair plans to show the Citation Excel and Bravo, while Boeing will have a Boeing Business Jet.
Dubai's booming tourism and VIP transport sector is sparking interest in civil helicopters, and, this year, the show will have a dedicated helicopter pavilion in which Sikorsky and Bell distributor Hawker Pacific will be among those exhibiting.
All this has helped swing the emphasis from defence towards the civil sector. When it began in 1989, the show was primarily a forum for defence firms to sway the procurement plans of the UAE and other Gulf states, says Richardson. Since then, efforts by the Dubai government to promote itself as one of the world's premium tourist and trading centres, as well as the success of Emirates and other Gulf airlines, have seen the commercial side grow fast. "There are misconceptions about Dubai," says Richardson. "The last show was split 50:50 defence and civil, but now the civil side has overtaken as the region's airline industry becomes more important to manufacturers."
This said, defence remains a crucial component of the Dubai show. The UAE armed forces, along with the Dubai government, run the event in partnership with Fairs & Exhibitions, and military visitors will be prominent among the 30 official foreign delegations attending. There may not be many active procurement contests in the Gulf - although Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have requirements to replace fighters - but the event is an opportunity for manufacturers to win friends and influence future decisions by governments.
Saab/BAE Systems' Gripen will make its first appearance in the Middle East and Dassault's Rafale will take part in the flying display. The US Department of Defence has thrown its weight behind the show with a strong contingent of aircraft, including a Boeing AH-64 Apache and F/A-18, Lockheed Martin F-16 and C-130J and Northrop Grumman EA-6B Prowler, E-2C Hawkeye and RQ-4A Global Hawk. Eurofighter will be represented in its own right. Military trainer aircraft will also be represented with Czech manufacturer Aero Vodochody's L-159 and Pilatus's PC-21.
The Middle East has always been fertile territory for the CIS's aerospace industry. Ukraine says it will have a bigger presence at Dubai than at Paris or Farnborough with six exhibitors in a pavilion and three aircraft in the flying display, the Antonov An-32 regional turboprop and An-74 and An-140 regional jets.
Finally, while Dubai gives overseas manufacturers an opportunity to win business from oil-rich Gulf states, it is also a platform for the region's fledgling aerospace industry to showcase its capabilities. Local exhibitors include maintenance, repair and overhaul specialists Jordan Airmotive (JALCO) and GAMCO. Abu Dhabi-based GAMCO's general manager Saif Al-Mughairy predicts the Middle East aviation market will "expand significantly" as freight and passenger movements soar. With Dubai's rulers expecting its economy to quadruple over the next 15 years and its neighbours keen to share in the emirate's success, the region can only grow in importance for the world's aerospace industry.
Source: Flight International
