Embraer is forecasting demand for 1,020 new aircraft from China in the 70- to 130-seat category over the next 20 years.
Worldwide, the Brazilian airframer expects deliveries of 6,350 new jets in the same category over the same period. The value of these deliveries, at list prices, is at an estimated $300 billion. This is a slight increase from the 6,250 new aircraft deliveries forecast in 2014.
Releasing the forecast at the Aviation Expo in Beijing, Embraer says its commercial unit has an 80% share of the regional market in China. As of 30 June, it has 167 firm orders for Chinese customers, of which 130 have been delivered.
Relaxation of regulations for new entrants has seen a surge in new start-ups in China, which are taking the opportunity to operate from small bases, says Embraer. This is as the country’s economy is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.7%, driving a 7% annual growth in air travel over the next 20 years.
Embraer expects air transport development to be uneven across China, with access to air travel in second and third-tier cities to grow at twice the speed as in major cities as new airports are being built. The western and central provinces, where there are “sufficient time slots and incentives from local government” will also lead the growth.
“The ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiatives...a mega scale blueprint that focuses on connectivity between countries and regions by all modes of transportation, underscore the importance of air transportation, and encourage more regional airlines to launch new routes and improve local air transportation,” it adds.
Source: Cirium Dashboard
