Embraer is forecasting almost a 10% drop in the demand for regional jets in the manufacturer's latest 20-year market forecast.
While the Brazilian firm had put the 20-year demand for 30- to 120-seat jets at 7,450 last year, it has heavily revised this downwards to 6,750 for its 2009-28 outlook.
The company has presented the forecast at its Sao Jose dos Campos facility. It expects a 2009-18 demand for 2,950 aircraft, supplemented by another 3,800 for 2019-28.
Sales of these aircraft will generate $220 billion, it adds.
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Embraer believes fuel prices will contain demand for the smaller-sized aircraft, in the 30- to 60-seat range. It forecasts only 650 will be required, less than 60% of the demand predicted last year.
The company has also lowered its outlook for the higher-capacity segments, dropping the 61- to 90-seat forecast by 6% to 2,450 jets, and the 91- to 120-seat segment by 3% to 3,650.
But Embraer says these two capacity brackets should "continue to help" carriers to match capacity to demand by "right-sizing" routes operated by narrowbody types with low load factors.
Speaking during a media briefing at Sao Jose dos Campos, Embraer market intelligence vice-president Luiz Sergio Chiessi said: "It is still unclear how [the credit crunch] is going to impact the aviation sector.
"We still don't know how long it is going to stay, whether it will be six months, a year or maybe more. We accept that there may be some postponements, but even the airlines don't have a clear vision of what they have to do."
More than 700 current aircraft of the sizes analysed in the forecast are more than 20 years old, says the company, and will soon be replaced. Embraer reiterates its expectation that emissions will be "one of the main influences" of future aircraft development.
Out of the 6,750 aircraft comprising the total demand to 2028, North America will take 38% of deliveries with Europe the second-largest recipient, taking 20%. China will rank third with 13%.
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
