Embraer is warning of a "tough year" ahead, as it attempts to resurrect sales campaigns for its 70- to 100-seat regional jet family that were put on hold following the 11 September terrorist attacks.
The Brazilian manufacturer plans to deliver 135 aircraft this year and 145 next, compared with 161 in 2001. This is much lower than the planned 200-plus annual output levels that were envisaged 18 months ago.
Embraer executive vice-president Fred Curado says he expects output to "remain stable for a couple of years then resume growth", and notes that the 2002-3 production forecasts do not provide for many extra orders. "Nearly all those positions are already sold, so we may be being conservative," he says.
Embraer's output has also been affected by delays in approval for Chinese ERJ-145 deliveries. This has resulted in delivery of 30 aircraft to China being deferred indefinitely from last year. Part of the delay is due to Chinese government attempts to secure industrial participation.
Curado says Embraer has held offset discussions, but adds that Embraer will only entertain a programme that is "feasible" and "adds value to the airlines and will not be forced on them".
The company's latest market forecast for aircraft in the 30- to 120-seat category over the next 10 years has been significantly reduced, falling from 4,900 aircraft to 4,000. "The 50-seat market will not experience the same levels of growth as before, for several years. The replacement of early regional jets will not begin until the next decade," says Curado.
The manufacturer is now focused on improving the fortunes of its new Embraer 170/190 family, the first of which entered flight-testing last month. The confirmation of the memorandum of understanding signed last June with Brazilian regional TAM for 25 Embraer 195s plus 75 options has been delayed by six months to June, following the death last July of the airline's president Rolim Adolfo Amaro in a helicopter crash and the aftermath of the US terrorist attacks.
Embraer plans to deliver around 30 170s next year, although it is yet to determine whether the delay in the aircraft's first flight will affect the certification schedule and first delivery to Swiss, which is due at the end of this year.
Source: Flight International
