Forecasting is easy – until somebody calls you up on it. So, to pre-empt any assaults on our prescience, here’s our own scorecard from our last round of year-end horizon-gazing.
Where will Boeing build the 777X?
A lengthy and sometimes bitter terms and conditions battle between Boeing and its shop floor machinists union, the IAM, left open the prospect that the airframer would build the successor to its 777 not at its traditional Seattle-area home – where the current 777 takes shape – but elsewhere. We reckoned cooler heads would prevail and, indeed, Seattle union members voted to accept a deal that keeps them on the job, building the X’s composite wing and handling final assembly. 1 for 1
When will Gulfstream move to replace the G450?
We said the then-secretive “P42” project would be unveiled “sooner rather than later” in 2014 – October, it turned out, which is later rather than sooner but well inside 2014. Unfortunately, the aircraft turned out not to be a G450 replacement, but two new large-cabin models: G500 and G600. 1.5 for 2
How profitable will airlines be in 2014?
We fell in line with IATA’s December 2014 global industry forecast of $19.7 billion in profits – an all-time high that would obliterate 2013’s $13 billion and make for a fifth consecutive year in the black. In the end, falling oil prices helped lift the industry to about $19.9 billion on a margin of 2.9% – bettering IATA’s expectation of 2.6%. The tailwind from slumping oil prices was pure windfall, but good luck counts the same as being clever. 2.5 for 3
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Which defence programmes will survive US budget cutting unscathed?
A year ago we said: “The USAF will not sacrifice one dollar of spending on the Boeing KC-46A tanker, the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter and an unselected new bomber.” We might have been a tad rash to talk USAF and ignore the Navy, but our thrust turned out to be broadly on target. F-35 acquisitions totalled 38 of all variants, which was four less than budgeted – but for fiscal 2015, Congress granted full funding for the F-35, the long-range strike bomber and the KC-46. Call that a win in a fiendishly difficult category. 3.5 for 4
Will peace break out in Afghanistan before the year ends?
“Not a chance,” we said. Sadly, that call was too easy. 4.5 for 5
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What will be the key developments and milestones in the propulsion sector during 2014?
In a multiple-point sector, we said nobody should be surprised if Emirates went with Rolls-Royce rather than Engine Alliance on its latest A380 order, Pratt & Whitney’s PW1100G would win certification and Gulfstream would choose Pratt & Whitney Canada’s PW800 for its P42. We nailed it on the Gulfstream, and the A320neo-powering PW1100G-JM cleared the FAA hurdle just before Christmas. Emirates’ A380s are more complicated – no formal selection yet, but the carrier is implying that at least 25 of 50 will be Engine Alliance-powered, with the rest going R-R, but only if Airbus decides to develop an A380neo, which looks like being a Rolls-only affair that nobody was talking about a year ago. Figure that out. 3 out of 3, for a running overall total of 7.5 for 8
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Will the trio of tardy major fighter buyers sign contracts?
That meant Brazil (Saab Gripen NG), India (Dassault Rafale) and the United Arab Emirates (Eurofighter Typhoon), and we said Yes-No-No for a tidy three of three. 10.5 for 11
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Can we expect a turnaround in the entry-level/light business jet market?
Our simple answer was “Yes” – which in retrospect seems rather ebullient. 10.5 for 12
Has China’s Moon landing kicked off a new space race?
This one is harder to judge, but we have to accept nil points here. China’s Moon mission rapidly dropped out of the headlines to be replaced by India’s triumphant Mars mission and not a lot else new, until NASA’s publicity machine started talking up Mars-or-bust with its Orion test flight. Nobody’s talking about the Moon, not even the much-hyped private sector, which could snaffle the $40 million Google Lunar XPrize by landing safely on the Moon, travelling 500m (1,640ft) and sending back pictures by the end of 2015 – but won’t. 10.5 for 13
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Will Virgin Galactic get into space?
We should get some new tea leaves. “If the next flights go to plan,” we said, a Virgin test pilot “may well mark 2014 with a peek at the topside of the atmosphere”. With one pilot dead, one badly injured and no realistic prospect of a paying customer flying any time soon, we’ll dock ourselves a mark. 9.5 for 14
Will Dassault unveil an ultra-long-range business jet?
Unlikely, we said – underestimating the Falcon team that launched a 6,450nm (12,000km) 8X trijet. 9.5 for 15
Dan Thisdell/flightglobal
Will 2014 be the year – finally – of European defence industry consolidation?
Our unequivocal “no” – or perhaps “non”, given the inevitably French character of such a question – was correct in the most literal sense. But when Dassault Aviation, Airbus and Paris reached an accord to see Airbus begin to sell down its pointless 46% stake in Dassault, prospects brightened for a wider rationalisation of cross-shareholdings in the French aerospace sector. Call it half a point: 10 for 16
Are private equity investors going to run for the exits?
We actually predicted a “substantial” rise in the amount of private equity money in aerospace. That’s hard to quantify, but anecdotal evidence suggests we hit the trend square-on – denied clear exit routes through the traditional channels of trade sales and initial public offerings, private equity investors appear to have not merely resigned themselves to holding companies for longer than planned, but actually to be ramping up investment. 11 for 17
Will the industry finally do something about automation-related degradation of airline pilot skills?
Interest in and discussion of an issue that many see as a crisis waiting to happen continues, but 2014 saw no meaningful action. Sadly, we were right. 12 for 18
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Will Embraer hit its first flight target with the KC-390?
For a planned 2014 first flight of the airlifter, we went with “should” happen. A roll-out did happen, but on the eve of the Christmas holiday break flight had proved elusive. Given our bet-hedging, call it half-right. 12.5 for 19
KC-390, on a roll
Embraer
Ham and cucumber, on a roll
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So, that puts the Flight team’s crystal ball working accurately two-thirds of the time. Good? Bad? Indifferent? You tell us…
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Source: FlightGlobal.com
