Douglas Barrie/LONDON
While 1998 may hold little excitement for European and US combat-aircraft manufacturers at home, the year promises some interesting battles in what are increasingly becoming crucial export markets.
By the end of 1998, Lockheed Martin may have a clear-cut view of the limits of the export longevity of its sales stalwart, the F-16 Fighting Falcon, while France's Dassault Aviation and the Eurofighter nations will be beginning to discover whether their respective future fighters can best the F-16 in the marketplace.
Norway and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are expected to make important decisions on future combat-aircraft requirements over the next 12 months.
The F-16, in its projected Block 60 guise, and the Eurofighter EF2000 feature in both contests. The Dassault Rafale has already been rejected in Norway, after a rigorous evaluation process, while it remains in the UAE battle, along with the other two aircraft.
The importance of these two competitions for Lockheed Martin should not be underestimated. A win in either will provide it with development funding for the Block 60 model of the F-16 and pay for a wish-list of advanced technologies which the US company could squeeze into its mature airframe. This will provide the company with a marketing bridge until the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) comes on line, assuming of course that it wins that competition, or indeed that a single JSF winner is picked by the US Department of Defense in 2001.
If, however, the Falcon is beaten in both contests, then Lockheed Martin will be exposed in the export market until the arrival of the JSF. Dassault and Eurofighter would try to exploit that situation to the full. This is partly why Lockheed Martin is pushing the US Government to come up with an export release policy on the F-22A Raptor - to provide it with a fighter offering, however expensive, in top-end competitions, such as in South Korea.
An export launch order for either the EF2000 or for the Rafale, while providing a fillip to either programme, would also seriously dent the future credibility of the F-16 when it is pitted against either competitor.
The EF2000's competitive position was bolstered when the four partner nations finally confirmed in late December their initial orders for 620 aircraft, with options for a further 90, with the conclusion of memoranda of understanding covering production and investment.
Eurofighter is also pitted against US competition in Australia, this time against Boeing, which is offering its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. The Royal Australian Air Force is likely to give a clear indication of its combat-aircraft preference beyond its present AF/ATF-18A Hornet fleet during the first half of the coming year.
Meanwhile, Boeing, Dassault, Lockheed Martin and Saab are hoping that the uncertain Central and Eastern European markets will begin to look a little more promising in the coming year, with the first requests for proposals for front-line fighter replacements expected to come during the course of the year. When and if they come, the orders from the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland will not be large (talk in Poland of an order for 80 to 100 aircraft is thought to be over-optimistic) but will establish NATO's newest member states-in-waiting as both customers and industrial partners of whichever group wins the orders.
The next year could also be notable for the public debut of one of China's next-generation export offerings. A prototype of the Chengdu F-10 single-engined delta-canard fighter is believed to be in final assembly, and could be rolled out in the final quarter of 1998. Of particular interest, should this happen, will be to see how closely the aircraft resembles the defunct Israel Aircraft Industries Lavi fighter project. China has relied heavily on Israeli support in the F-10's development.
In military-transports, 1998 will see either the launch, or the demise, of the European collaborative Future Large Aircraft (FLA) programme. Pre-launch studies will need to get under way in the first quarter of 1998 if the aircraft is to have even a remote chance of being considered for the second tranche of the Royal Air Force's Lockheed C-130 Hercules replacement programme.
While the politics of a pan-European military-aircraft programme are enticing, given recent governmental pronouncements from Germany, France and the UK on European consolidation, the price tag is less attractive. It remains to be determined exactly where the money for the FLA will be found, if the programme is to proceed.
Source: Flight International
