Germany's beleaguered aerospace business is showing its first signs of growth for five years, according to the year-end report from the BDLI industry association. The "cautious optimism" comes, however, with warnings on the need for greater European integration and the need to fight military-spending cuts.
German aerospace sales have plummeted from the peak in 1991 when they came close to DM27 billion ($18 billion). By the end of 1995, sales were at their lowest point in more than a decade, at DM15 billion. Early estimates for 1996, however, suggest that industry sales grew by around 8-10%, largely following the recovery in civil-aircraft markets.
The industry is expected to regain more ground this year, taking sales back above DM18 billion, says BDLI managing director Hans Eberhard Birke. Despite the expected growth, the workforce, which has fallen by one-third since 1990, will continue to decline.
Employment ended 1995 at only 63,330 people - its lowest for more than 15 years - with the industry in the middle of shedding another 6,000 by the end of 1997. Birke says that there is hope for a "gradual increase in jobs" from 1998 onwards, provided that markets for commercial-aircraft remain buoyant.
Military-aircraft production has suffered the worst job cuts, with employment falling from as many as 50,000 down to less than 18,000 . Germany's overall defence-industry employment has halved to 140,000 since 1991, following severe military-spending cuts.
The BDLIwarns that "-further substantial programme reductions would be fatal", jeopardising Germany's ability to maintain key defence capabilities, especially in the second tier of equipment manufacturers. It goes on to caution that Germany's hand in negotiating positions on future international ventures would be "profoundly weakened" by such cuts.
The association also stresses the need for urgent restructuring of Europe's civil-aircraft industry, based around Airbus Industrie. Birke argues that the talks now taking place on turning Airbus into a stand-alone company should lead to "the full integration of its partners' capabilities from concept design to final assembly", a move the French have resisted.
He adds that the partners would become shareholders on the new company's board and "-must have exactly those voting rights which correspond to their share in the company". That would give Daimler-Benz Aerospace an equal voice to that of Aerospatiale, potentially challenging French dominance within the consortium. The BDLI also suggests that, in the future, Airbus could be the model for European combat-aircraft production.
Source: Flight International