Germany’s acquisition of long-endurance UAVs is giving rise to a new domestic political debate over the implications fielding such systems have for its strategic security posture, according to the head of the German parliament’s economic and co-operation subcommittee, Alexander Bonde.
The German parliament approved the purchase of a fleet of five Northrop Grumman RQ-4B Eurohawk configuration high-altitude long-endurance UAVs in January, while a General Atomics MQ-9 Predator B medium endurance system purchase is being explored.
Bonde, who also sits on the parliament’s defence, homeland security and foreign affairs committee, says a domestic debate is looming in Germany over the potential for long-endurance UAVs to act as a catalyst for conflict escalation in future military operations.
He says the development of any weaponised UAV capability will need to be considered as part of that debate, with the German parliament having a controlling say in decisions on the development of new military capabilities as well as their operational use
Addressing the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International’s Unmanned Systems Europe conference in Cologne, Germany, Bonde argued that the Eurohawk purchase sets a precedent for political approvals for a Predator B deal:
“The German air force has for a considerable time now been looking very longingly at the Predator B MALE UAV as a reconnaissance drone. While the ministry has not yet finally made a decision on this procurement, I would be very surprised if the air force would not ultimately be able to see their wish fulfilled.”
The Eurohawk purchase attracted criticism, he acknowledges, but on a limited scale: “While not uncontroversial, the decision to introduce Eurohawk was carried by a large majority in the parliament.”
Bonde said the “uniquely German” debate now emerging is likely to focus on “the progressive asymmetry of conflicts. Much has been written and said about asymmetric warfare in recent years. We all know that asymmetry has two dimensions – the asymmetry of weakness and the asymmetry of strength.
“The technologically inferior parties in a conflict are forced to make a strength out of their weakness by terrorism by partisan activities on their own territory or terrorism in the enemy’s territory. The goal of the combatants is to make themselves seem invulnerable by virtue of the fact that they are unidentified.
“The asymmetry of strength also has invulnerability as its goal. In its case the combatant is invulnerable by virtue of being unattainable and as we make greater use of UAVs in conflicts, we further increase that effect. I mean it is our aim, particularly in stabilisation operations, to be as technologically advanced as possible and within reason, to expand and retain a technological lead.”
Bonde added: “The more we are able to do this with UAVs, the greater will be the incentive and the compulsion for our opponents to themselves to resort to asymmetric warfare, with all the magic consequences. This is not an argument against using UAVs, but it is a development that we have to bear in mind because every weapons system and every strategy brings a reaction from the other side. It is essential that this be considered in advance.”
Introduction of long-endurance UAVs will pose particular problems for the parliament in terms of approvals for their release for operations.
“Does deployment of a UAV require a mandate?” Bonde asked. “It is a new question that we have to decide upon, as well as what such a mandate would look like. To pre-empt such a debate I personally think yes, it would. The political and security policy implications of a deployment exist regardless of whether a system or platform is manned or not. But as systems become more strategically available, parliament must take this into consideration.
“Either the mandate for a foreign mission will have to be restricted so that there is no grey area with respect to deployments different in nature from what was originally intended – that would be a solution that restricts the military scope for action – or every UAV that leaves German airspace, including the operators and logistics support, will have to be considered as a foreign assignment. The first question arising from that is the one from the soldiers’ trade union about the allowances for foreign assignment.
“The other option is that the mandate could specifically state the possible use to which the UAV can be put. Whatever happens in the future of this debate a mandate process must take into account the particularities that arise from UAVs.”
Availability of long-endurance UAVs as an alternative to deploying ground forces could prove an attractive option to the parliament, Bonde said, “but it is essential that this does not mean we make things easier for ourselves, for our own convenience, because in the end we are still talking about very important decisions concerning our own security and concerning the security of other people.
“Even the deployment of pure reconnaissance sensors has security repercussions that the politicians must take into consideration. We all know the examples in history where sheer reconnaissance aircraft ratchet up a crisis – you will remember the shooting down of the U2 over the Soviet Union or the incident in China where the crew was taken. The danger of soldiers being lost in such cases does not arise with UAVs, but the escalation effect might remain the same.
“We should therefore not allow ourselves to forget about those potential consequences and we need to go into a debate about how we should react to those kinds of thoughts. I think possibly it would be easiest to treat UAVs in philosophical terms as if they are manned.”
The Predator B’s inherent weapons capability raises the question of how Germany will retain man in the loop involvement in future UAV operations, whether or not the platforms are in fact armed. “At the moment nobody in Germany plans to arm UAVs and the air force plans involve only pure reconnaissance versions of Predator. But the fact of its availability raises the possibility of questions concerning armament,” Bonde said.
Bonde told the conference that the introduction of Predator B by Germany will “involve something of a tight-rope walk. Technical possibilities and availability will naturally exert a pressure on the hitherto broadly shared position against arming UAVs.”
Source: FlightGlobal.com
