It still remains unknown what factors caused the deadly collision on 29 January between a US Army Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk and American Airlines flight 5342, but some theories have started to emerge.

Government officials, including secretary of defence Pete Hegseth and President Donald Trump, seemed to indicate on 30 January that the army rotorcraft may have exceeded the 200ft altitude ceiling for rotary-wing aircraft operating along that stretch of the Potomac River near Ronald Reagan Washington National airport.

The incident involved a US Army Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk colliding with American Airlines flight 5342 – an MHIRJ CRJ700 regional jet operated by PSA Airlines from Wichita, Kansas to Washington. The accident killed 67 people, including 60 passengers and four crew on the CRJ700 and three US Army personnel on the helicopter.

“We anticipate that the investigation will quickly be able to determine whether the aircraft was in the corridor and at the right altitude at the time of the incident,” Hegseth said.

That corridor is frequently used by military helicopters and the restrictions are meant to ensure safe separation with commercial air traffic in the crowded airspace.

US Army UH-60 Black Hawks in formation over Potomac River c US Army

Source: US Army

Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawks fly low over the Potomac River, not far from where a similar rotorcraft impacted a PSA Airlines regional jet on approach to Washington National airport near Washington, DC

Other suggestions include the misidentification of the approaching commercial aircraft by the Black Hawk crew, perhaps partly due to the crew using night vision goggles.

Recordings of air traffic control communications reveal flight 5342 was directed to an alternate runway at Washington National shortly before landing. While that is not an uncommon occurrence, a retired UH-60 pilot tells the Associated Press the approach to runway 33 brings commercial aircraft much closer to – indeed, directly over – the designated helicopter flight corridor.

“I had that exact same incident several years ago,” former National Guard pilot Darrell Feller tells the news outlet. “There was a commercial jet landing on 33 and I could not see him. I lost him in the city lights.”

Washington National airport sits in the midst of a dense urban area including Washington and the neighbouring cities of Alexandria and Arlington in Virginia. Numerous highways cross the area.

“Moving lights get mixed up with ground lights,” Feller notes.

The approach to runway 33 would have placed the incoming CRJ700 at an oblique angle to the oncoming UH-60, meaning the regional jet’s approach lights would not pointed directly at the helicopter’s crew, he adds.

The collision happened around 20:48 local time while the Black Hawk crew was performing a regular night proficiency flight with night vision goggles (NVGs) – standard practise for US Army night flights.

Some experts have speculated that the night vision equipment may have contributed to the disaster. The goggles work by enhancing ambient light sources that are too dim for the naked eye, such as stars. When worn in a bright environment such as a cityscape, NVGs can quickly blind a wearer.

“Goggles actually make it worse down there,” Feller notes of the area around Washington National. “A lot of times we would flip our goggles up going through that area.”

He adds that the high volume of commercial air traffic coming into the waterfront airport also poses a challenge, possibly leading pilots to mistakenly identify inbound flights.

Wreckage of PSA Airlines CRJ700

Source: United States Coast Guard

Wreckage of the US Army UH-60 Black Hawk “PAT25” (right) in the Potomac River near Washington, DC’s Washington National airport

Whether the UH-60 crew misidentified another aircraft as the CRJ700 remains unknown, but the crew had been advised of the CRJ’s presence as the jet prepared to manoeuvre for the runway change. Using the helicopter’s call sign, ‘PAT25’, a controller referred to traffic “just south” of the Woodrow Wilson Bridge, identifying the aircraft as a CRJ, giving its altitude and saying the jet was “[preparing] for runway 33”.

The helicopter crew responded that the traffic was “in sight” and requested visual separation – a procedure under which the pilot is responsible for maintaining safe distance.

Investigators from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) say they will not release a preliminary report into the cause of the collision for at least 30 days.

The NTSB has already recovered the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder from the CRJ700, but not yet equipment from the army UH-60.

The two Black Hawk pilots had a combined 1,500h of flight time between them, according to unverified reports.

AA 5342 wreckage in Potomac c US Coast Guard

Source: US Coast Guard

Wreckage of PSA Airlines CRJ700

Although the Pentagon has not revealed the names of the deceased UH-60 aviators, the wife of Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Eaves confirmed her husband was one of the pilots. The governor of Mississippi, Eaves’ home state, confirmed the same.

Eaves had logged some 1,000h of rotary-wing flight time, according to reporting by Fox News, citing an unnamed source. Fox further reports Eaves’ co-pilot on the UH-60 was a female officer with 500h of flight time. Secretary of defence Hegseth said the co-pilot was a captain – a mid-career rank for officers in the US Army.

Warrant officers are typically assigned to highly technical specialities such as aviation and geospatial intelligence. Aviation warrant officers often serve as lead pilots, mentoring and training less-experienced officers like captains and lieutenants, who spend less of their careers flying and typically have more administrative responsibility.

The identity of the third individual aboard the UH-60 – the crew chief – has been confirmed as Staff Sergeant Ryan O’Hara.

American Airlines chief executive Robert Isom says the CRJ700’s pilots also had significant experience.

The regional jet’s captain had flown for PSA for six years, while the first officer had two years on the job, according to Isom. “These are experienced pilots.”