Manufacturers at the show naturally might try to play down the current economic crisis that has whiplashed across Asia in recent months, but a new survey puts the cost to the air transport industry alone at $2 billion this year.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has compiled a market-by-market analysis designed to quantify the effect of recent events on airline traffic and financial projections.
As a result, the association has revised its five-year growth forecast for international passenger traffic to an average of 5.4% for 1997-2001, down from 6.6%.
More significantly, says IATA, Asia-Pacific traffic is now expected to grow at just 4.4% a year, down from the previous forecast of 7.7%. Cargo forecasts for Asia-Pacific are also reduced from 9% to 6.5%.
While some level of growth is expected in most markets, says IATA, the extent of the impact varies substantially for individual countries. Most badly hit will be markets in Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand. China and Japan should fare best.
Among manufacturers, Boeing is maintaining a level-headed approach to the situation, insisting that the near-term economic effect is manageable, but there are hints of concern.
Raymond Bracey, Boeing's Asia-Pacific business director, has warned that the US must provide sufficient resources to the International Monetary Fund to stave off an even deeper crisis. "The stakes are very high," says Bracey, who adds that most Asian airlines will take their planned 1998 deliveries, but 1999 and 2000 orders could be affected. Airlines themselves, meanwhile, have been offering deep discount fares on their Asian routes, trimming frequencies and even suspending some services altogether.
Source: Flight Daily News
