The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) is considering adopting a model developed by Dutch civil-aviation authority, the RLD, to predict the environmental and socio-political effects of aviation regulatory decisions.
Richard Hancox, project manager for UK transportation modelling specialist MVA, believes that Project AERO represents "the only detailed global model of aviation" in existence, which, he adds, could be developed to model airline economics, including growth in passenger and freight traffic.
Project AERO is designed to give policy makers a better idea of the environmental consequences of decisions in areas such as fuel and ticket taxation, route and landing charges. It aims to reduce the adverse environmental effects of high-altitude emissions from aero engines, which it classifies by type.
"It forecasts flight profiles, emissions in each flight phase and the knock-on effects," says Hancox. MVA analysed airline response to policy measures, allowing for competition between European Union (EU) and non-EU carriers and from high-speed rail links.
MVA developed Project AERO with the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory and local consultancy Resource Analysis. Phase IV of the project was launched in late 1997, to incorporate effects such as financial assistance with aircraft-fleet modernisation.
ICAO is now considering its final requirements and will reveal details in the first week of April.
MVA has also developed a generic growth-forecasting model for the European Commission and is developing a model specific to Hong Kong's new Chek Lap Kok Airport, due to open this year.
Source: Flight International
