More than 7,400 business jets valued at $107 billion will be built during the next decade to 2014, according to the 15th annual forecast by the US-based analyst Teal Group. This represents a significant hike over its 2004 10-year forecast of just over 6,400 business jets worth $92 billion, and reflects the widely held belief that market recovery is now established.
"The market is no longer falling," says Teal analyst Richard Aboulafia. "We have finished the first down cycle of a transformed market and the industry looks set to come out of it intact."
He cautions that talk of continued growth is premature. "There are too many uncertainties about the economy including oil prices, corporate profits and interest rates for us to confidently predict sustainable growth." He says fractional ownership providers, which hold about 40% of the industry's backlog, pose the biggest risk to the forecast. As fractionals continue to restructure and exert pricing pressure on manufacturers, demand for new aircraft could be impacted.
Teal forecasts Gulfstream will take 25.3% of the market (by dollar value) over the next 10 years followed by Bombardier with 23.5%.
Source: Flight International
