In a country besieged with bureaucracy and straining to meet the transportation needs of its 190 million inhabitants, Bacharuddin Habibie, head of national aerospace manufacturer Industri Pesawat Terbang Nusantara (IPTN), stands out as a man in an hurry. Having crammed into the 20 years of IPTN's existence the equivalent of several generations' worth of aeronautical-industry development, Habibie is now stepping up the pace and about to enter the jet age.
No sooner had the N250 prototype PA1 lifted off the ground on 10 August 1995, than Habibie sought, and received, presidential approval to begin work on his next creation, the N2130. The 80- to 130-seat regional jet represents Indonesia's must ambitious (and perhaps most risky) undertaking to date. If successful, contends Habibie, it promises to make IPTN a true world-aerospace player early in the next century.
Indonesia is not alone in its vision, with at least three other major Asian aerospace aspirants limbering up to join the regional-jet race. With IPTN having so far shown no indication of wanting to partner any incumbent Western manufacturer, it remains to be seen whether its solo effort will go the distance financially.
FIELD STUDY
The N2130 Technology Programme (NTP) was launched in October 1994 as a market and product-definition study. The NTP team is headed by Habibie's eldest son, Ilham, and consists of IPTN's younger, so-called "second generation", design engineers and managers. Its work will be concluded by March 1997, with the drafting of the aircraft's design requirements and objectives.
"Everybody has heard that it's going to be a 100-passenger aircraft, but what does the market actually want?" asks the NTP deputy vice-president, Widjojo Hardjoprakoso. "Does the market want a mixed-class 100-passenger aircraft, or does it want 112, with the capability of higher-density 30-32in [750-800mm] seat pitch for up to 120 seats?"
Airline consultation initially concentrated on Indonesia's five main carriers, Bouraq Indonesia Airlines, Garuda Indonesia, Mandala Airlines, Merpati Nusantara and Sempati Air Transport. NTP attention since March has been widened to encompass potential foreign operators, particularly in the USA.
An IPTN 20-year market forecast released in 1995 identifies a potential requirement for up 2,757 passenger aircraft in the 80- to 130-seat class. This includes 946 for North America alone by 2015, more than twice the number needed in the Asia Pacific region. Hardjoprakoso acknowledges that "-the biggest potential is still in the USA, even though the Asia-Pacific region is expanding".
Other manufacturer surveys have calculated the number of needed aircraft at slightly fewer, depending on the size of category defined. Even assuming that the higher figure is closer to reality, it still translates into an average of only 137 aircraft a year - sufficient to support perhaps three regional manufacturers.
For IPTN and other would-be newcomers, time is running out. Many of these new aircraft, perhaps about 1,800 to 2,000, will be needed sooner, rather than later, as replacements for time-expired McDonnell Douglas (MDC) DC-9s and Boeing 737-200s, nearly 30 of which are in Indonesian domestic service.
Despite the collapse of Fokker, the number of new aircraft either under development, or in the planning pipeline, still exceeds demand. MDC has already launched the 106-seat MD-95-30 twinjet for delivery in 1999 and, while the Airbus Industrie A319 and new-generation Boeing 737-600 belong to larger aircraft families, they cannot be discounted.
China is trying to get its proposed 90- to 140-seat AE-100 off the ground, as part of an international collaborative effort involving Aero International (Regional), Singapore and, possibly, South Korea. Japan is trying simultaneously to breathe new life into its wilting YS-X project, possibly with help from Boeing and/or Bombardier (Flight International, 29 May-4 June, P4)
ACCELERATED DESIGN
IPTN, in an effort to catch up, recently took the decision to speed up the N2130's planned development schedule. "We've moved the delivery time two years ahead, to 2004. It was driven by market requirements, as the aircraft is needed sooner than 2006," explains NTP market and competitive-analysis manager Rudi Hendriadi.
The revised N2130 timetable calls for a shortening of the preliminary design phase, from three to two years, with the aircraft's basic configuration to be frozen by mid-1999. The detailed-design phase has also been accelerated and will be completed by early 2001, when subassembly of the first prototype will begin. "One of the means to shorten the design cycle will be to go into digital design processes. We've already had some experience with the N250 and we know that we can do better with the N2130," claims Hardjoprakoso.
While IPTN has made partial use of Dassault's CATIA system, it is not yet ready to make the jump to a Boeing 777-type paperless design. "If you're talking paperless aircraft, that means you've to go into digital-design assembly, and I don't think we can do that right away," concedes Hardjoprakoso.
Roll-out of the lead prototype is tentatively targeted for March 2002, with its maiden flight scheduled for the following August. IPTN hopes to have the first aircraft in commercial service by the first quarter of 2004, three-and-half years behind the MD-95 and, if China's timetable is to believed, perhaps two years after the planned AE-100.
IPTN hopes to make up lost time by offering an aircraft with superior performance, technology and cost savings over its rivals. Three versions are envisaged, with a 29.45m-long airframe serving as the baseline 100-seat design. This will be followed by an 80-seat, 2.220m-shrink version and a 3.920m-stretch derivative, seating up to 130 passengers, in a single-class configuration.
The NTP team has opted for a six-abreast cross-section, discarding a five-abreast alternative as too close to that of the N250. A decision still needs to be taken between either a 3.910m-wide oval hull, or a marginally narrower ovoid-shaped, fuselage. The latter offers the advantage of a deeper baggage hold, capable of accommodating LD-3 containers.
IPTN designers, in response to airline calls for improved performance, are planning for an aircraft that can be flown higher and faster than most other regional aircraft. The N2130 will have a baseline design cruising speed of Mach 0.8 and a maximum design cruising altitude of 11,900m (39,000ft).
The baseline N2130 will be designed to have a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 49,000kg and full payload range of 3,425km (1,850nm), which would compare favourably with the marginally heavier MD-95-30 and planned, Chinese-led, AE-100. The aircraft will have a maximum payload of 12,300kg, but this may be further raised to 14,000kg.
RECONCILING REQUIREMENTS
Following consultation with Indonesian domestic airlines, conflicting design requirements have emerged. Some carriers have asked for a longer-range aircraft, while others have stressed the importance of a short-take-off-and-landing capability.
"Some airlines are talking about a direct route from Jakarta to Jayapura [Irian Jaya], which is close to 2,000nm, but, at the same time, some of them want a very short field length. This is part of the study, and we need to find out what the impact on cost will be," says Hardjoprakoso. The baseline 100-seater is being designed to carry 14,000litres of fuel, but if an increase were made in the aircraft's MTOW, it would allow for the addition of a centre-wing box fuel tank.
One area in which there appears to be little dissension is the use of fly-by-wire (FBW) technology. The N2130's flight controls are likely to be based on the Lucas/ Liebherr FBW system developed for the N250 turboprop, but with slightly different architecture and enhanced control laws.
Other avionics features under study include the provision of Airbus Industrie-style side-stick controls; a head-up display for operations from poorly equipped airports; and a global-positioning-system-based navigation system, which would help overcome East Indonesia's limited navigation-aid infrastructure. "In the end, it's a trade-off on how much the airlines want to pay," says Hardjoprakoso.
The selection of system vendors is still a long way off and suppliers are only now beginning to put together tentative proposals. The N2130 cockpit avionics will almost certainly be awarded to the winner of a straight fight between Sextant, Honeywell and Rockwell-Collins, the latter offering a version of its Pro Line 21 system.
Competition to power the aircraft will also be intense, with BMW Rolls-Royce, CFM International and Pratt & Whitney all in contention, offering the BR715, CFM56-9 and PW6000, respectively. Industry sources suggest that IPTN will opt for an MD-95-type solution by short-listing two engines, with the launch customer then making the final choice.
The decision on whether or not to market the N2130 with a choice of engines is more likely to hinge on the type of exclusivity deal struck. "We would probably want to have one engine," says Hardjoprakoso, "but, depending on the manufacturer's offer, there is an option for another."
COST CHALLENGE
The biggest potential impediment to the N2130 becoming reality is the projected $2 billion needed to see the programme through to certification. The sum is more than that which has been pumped into IPTN by the Indonesian Government over the last 20 years and, by official estimates, three times the cost of the N250's development.
IPTN has turned to the private sector for support for the first time, with its recently established fund-raising vehicle, PT Dua Satu Tiga Puluh (DSTP). The Government is providing indirect support, with state-owned companies investing in DSTP, in an effort to encourage wealthy businessmen to follow suit and buy shares.
The company has not yet revealed how many N2130s it will need to sell for shareholders to see a return on their $2 billion investment. IPTN suggests that there is domestic requirement for around 150 aircraft, including replacements for F28s and 737-200s, but, outside Indonesia, the aircraft will face formidable competition.
IPTN has already spent considerable sums on production tooling for the N250 and its airframe-subcontracting work, such as composite autoclaves and stretch-forming machines. Additional investment would be needed in the area of automatic riveting and single-piece wing and frame machining.
The company is hoping to take advantage of its lower manufacturing and labour costs, to undercut competition. Through a combination of this, off-the-shelf equipment purchases, the use of a simple single-axle gear and shorter production cycle, IPTN is aiming for a sale price of as little as $20 million an aircraft.
To meet this target, according to Hardjoprakoso, "-the aircraft has to be made more efficiently. It's a matter of improving production so that the costs can be reduced. Even though we're cheaper, labour costs alone are not a big enough difference, but I think new processes and technology will make the difference."
Source: Flight International
