Two space industry leaders warned yesterday at Farnborough about the dangers of overcapacity still facing the satellite manufacturing and launch services sectors.
Lockheed Martin Space Systems president Ted Gavrilas warned the satellite manufacturing industry against any return to the bad habits of the "optimistic mid-1990s".
Meanwhile, Mark Albrecht, president of Lockheed Martin partner company International Launch Services, predicted a shakeout in the launch services sector.
Gavrilas said reality hit home around 1995 when the US industry was offering manufacturing capacity "far in excess of what turned out to be the true level of demand.
"The following year, just two commercial satellites were delivered, and while demand has recovered a little since then, it's still nowhere near the levels anticipated in the mid-1990s.
"The commercial market is demanding spacecraft and payloads that are flexible and reconfigurable, capable of delivering variable levels of communications power and bandwidth-on-demand," he said. In meeting those requirements, he said, the successful manufacturer would introduce new technology and additional satellite power incrementally, maintain or reduce spacecraft size and weight, and continuously improve cost performance.
Albrecht of ILS warned against the perils of overcapacity in the present satellite transponder market. "The market for commercial-spacecraft launch services will start to improve from its present flat 20-a-year level only when we grind off some of the overcapacity as satellite communications operators begin to compete effectively with other technologies such as fibre," he said.
He saw the combined government/commercial launch market also remaining on a plateau, with an average of 34 payloads per year up to 2012.
BRENDAN GALLAGHER
Source: Flight Daily News