The unveiling of the 787 in Everett last Sunday represented the end of a decade-long journey by Boeing in pursuit of its vision to create the world's ultimate "fragmentor".
In 1996 it was Boeing, not Airbus, that was poised to make a step-change in airliner size with its 550-seat 747-600X. But having decided not to launch this ultimate stretch of the jumbo jet, it quickly changed track as it noticed the fragmentation phenomenon that had begun with 767s on the Atlantic in the 1980s was gathering pace after the arrival of the 777 and the A330/A340 in the 1990s. Airlines were finding that traditional 747 routes could no longer support such a large aircraft smaller long-range widebodies enabled more direct flights to secondary cities, diluting hub-to-hub traffic.
So while Airbus was predicting sales in excess of 1,500 ultra-large aircraft as it whipped up interest in its 550-seat A380, Boeing was downscaling its forecast in that size sector in favour of increased demand in the mid-size market. It was the US airframer's fervent belief in the power of fragmentation that saw it all but ignore Airbus's moves in the ultra-large market and create the 250-seat transonic Sonic Cruiser project in 2001.
Boeing's failure to convince the market about "the value of speed" was the death knell for that radical cranked-arrow design, but it was that same fragmentation belief that drove the development of the 787.
Source: Flight International
