PETER LA FRANCHI / CANBERRA
European industry, particularly EADS, is determined to secure a larger slice of the US- and Israeli-dominated UAV market
European decisions on a core group of airborne surveillance programmes over the next 12 months could shape the short and medium-term future of the high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) segments of the international unmanned air vehicles market.
Germany's Euro Hawk requirement remains the most likely near-term HALE programme to go to contract. However, NATO's ongoing evaluation of a mixed air vehicle solution for its Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) requirement could see a second active programme under way within a year.
Although Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk derivatives will dominate this segment of the market for some time, interest continues among European manufacturers - notably EADS - in developing a rival system. Longer-term opportunities for HALE systems on the continent also exist in France, Sweden and possibly Norway.
Northrop Grumman's decision to offer an RQ-8A Fire Scout UAV derivative in the UK's Watchkeeper programme could open a wider market for VTUAVs across Europe. There are requirements for a VTOL system in Germany and Spain, and the Italian and Swedish navies are exploring medium-term acquisitions.
Northrop Grumman is not alone in the VTOL UAV market, however - it faces competition from Bell's TR-911 Eagle Eye in future international contests. EADS also continues to explore options to develop a VTOL system in the medium term.
The dominance of US systems in the HALE and VTOL sectors contrasts with the outlook for the medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) and short- to medium-range tactical UAV segments, where European systems are increasingly likely to challenge North American producers in most marketplaces.
The potential for European industry to gain a significant foothold in the MALE segment should also be strengthened by the outcome of the French air force's current competition for 12 air vehicles. That project could, in turn, influence the shape of medium-term requirements from Belgium and the Netherlands, which signed a procurement and development agreement with France on MALE systems in mid-2002. Medium to long-term MALE requirements also exist in Spain, Sweden, the UK and possibly Turkey. Norway is examining MALE options in parallel with its HALE studies.
European suppliers already predominate in the continent's conventional take-off and landing tactical UAV market, both in teaming arrangements with Israeli partners or in offering domestically developed systems. The only notable exception to this trend in the past decade was Romania's selection of the AAI Shadow 600 in 1997.
Rotary-wing rival
The shortlisting in February this year of teams headed by Northrop Grumman and Thales for the UK's Watchkeeper programme has resulted in the unusual situation of a rotary-wing medium tactical UAV being pitted against conventional fixed-wing designs. This contrasts with initial industry and analyst expectations that endurance would be seen as a key advantage in meeting the project's brigade-level air vehicle component.
That expectation was reinforced by BAE Systems' decision in earlier stages of the competition to team with General Atomics Aeronautical Systems and AAI to offer RQ-1 Predator and Shadow 200 variants. Similarly, Lockheed Martin had offered a combination of the Meggitt Spectre 3 and the EADS Eagle 1, a platform developed from Israel Aircraft Industries' (IAI) Heron.
Watchkeeper is not expected to reach a conclusion until mid-2004. Northrop Grumman and Thales are participating in a series of system integration assurance phase studies for the programme, most of which will be completed late this year. The project's initial operational capability target is early 2006, despite UK Ministry of Defence hopes that deliveries of some system components could begin earlier.
Strategic marker
However, the possibility of a decision 12 months from now has become an important strategic marker for Northrop Grumman's thinking on the VTUAV market as a whole. By then, the company hopes to be in a new contract arrangement with the US Navy. Germany is seen by Northrop Grumman and rival Bell as the most likely maritime VTUAV customer in the near term, after the US Navy. This follows the German government's decision to terminate funding for the EADS SEAMOS system in mid-2002. Northrop Grumman has recently offered to demonstrate the RQ-8A aboard Germany navy vessels. It has also signed a technical agreement with Spanish shipbuilder IZAR to enable an integration study of the VTUAV aboard Spanish navy F100 frigates to begin in late July.
Bell has also stepped up its efforts in both countries as part of a global push of the Eagle Eye for the rest of this year. Bell says the drive is based partly on expectation that known European VTUAV requirements are rapidly moving towards a start date, as are similar requirements in Japan and Singapore. Unlike Northrop Grumman, Bell says it has a confirmed launch customer - the US Coast Guard.
EADS remains the focus for development of any European VTUAV system in the medium to long term. It revealed at the Farnborough air show in 2002 that it had been exploring options for a VTOL UAV derived from the Eurocopter EC120 helicopter under plans to gain a foothold in all UAV market segments.
EADS also continues to market the VTUAV developed under the SEAMOS programme, and participates in the joint study by the French procurement agency DGA and research organisation ONERA of maritime VTUAV concepts linked to the French navy's medium-term interest in operating systems from its new multi-mission frigates.
Northrop Grumman rules out co-operation with EADS in the VTUAV area, and is instead trying to negotiate a relationship with shipbuilder DCN for the French navy requirement if it does proceed to competition. The French navy is expected to launch soon a series of feasibility studies on its needs, with the studies to be completed before the end of this year.
Although Thales is competing for Watchkeeper with Hermes 180 and 450 series UAVs, it has previously pursued opportunities for VTUAV systems in Europe in conjunction with Bombardier. Between 1996 and 1999, Thales promoted a hybrid CL-327 UAV equipped with Thales payloads and command and control systems.
The growing importance of HALE systems in the international market follows the deployment of such a UAV - the Global Hawk - by Northrop Grumman for the Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts. However, Northrop Grumman has recently been scaling back its forecasts of air vehicle sales. At Farnborough last year, the company suggested a market for between 245 and 281 air vehicles up to 2015. But at the Australian International Airshow in February, Northrop Grumman scaled those figures down to 136 air vehicles over the same period, based on 51 for the US Air Force, 35 for the US Navy, and international sales of between 35 and 50.
Initial 2002 forecasts had included up to 20 air vehicles each for Australia and Germany, with purchases from 2004, up to 30 in Japan from 2008, and up to 50 for NATO. Northrop Grumman assessments of a potential NATO purchase are focused on the possible requirement for between four and nine HALE air vehicles in a mixed fleet for the AGS programme.
Whether the mixed-fleet approach proceeds depends on an approvals process now under way among alliance countries for a draft request for information that is understood to flag the mixed-fleet option, despite the fact that it has not previously been part of the formal AGS technical requirement. The AGS project office has asked NATO member states to give responses to the draft by the end of this month, and the launch of an initial competition phase is targeted at July-August.
The tender will be restricted to Raytheon, teamed with BAE, and to the multinational Transatlantic Industrial Proposed Solution (TIPS) team that comprises EADS, Galileo Avionica and Northrop Grumman.
Raytheon is yet to detail its proposal for a mixed fleet requirement, should that option proceed. Northrop Grumman says the TIPS team intends to offer a solution based on the RQ-4, but the air vehicle would be distinctly different from the existing Global Hawk and Euro Hawk designations.
NATO schedule
The NATO AGS requirement calls for the system to enter operational service by 2010. If the draft request for information is approved within the next month, the tender phase would close late this year, and a single team selected in mid- to late 2004 to undertake the system demonstration phase.
That schedule would preclude development of an alternative HALE vehicle by the Raytheon/BAE team unless it was based on the EADS and IAI-developed Eagle 2 or the Predator B. Those two UAVs remain the only high-end medium-endurance systems acknowledged to be under development that could approach existing RQ-4 capability in some profiles.
General Atomics and Raytheon revealed in mid-2002 that they had been jointly studying options for UAV control from manned surveillance aircraft. This includes the ASTOR system being developed by Raytheon for the UK Royal Air Force. But it is unclear whether that announcement was made in the context of Watchkeeper, or with a view to the AGS programme.
A NATO decision on AGS in mid-2004 closely mirrors expectations that Germany will place a launch order for a Euro Hawk system in the second half of 2004, if trials and demonstration phase prove successful.
Germany hopes to stage a deferred flight demonstration in its airspace in September. The initial aim of holding trials during the European spring was postponed because all available air vehicles were required by the US Air Force for operations in Iraq. Whether the new target can be met depends on whether German airspace management authority approval can be fast-tracked. EADS, Northrop Grumman, the USAF and German authorities were meeting as recently as the last week of May to try to hit the September target.
The Euro Hawk is intended as an unmanned replacement for the German navy's Dassault Atlantic signals intelligence (SIGINT) aircraft. Plans calls for a solution based on an RQ-4 airframe mated with an EADS mission package.
EADS says its main objective for the Euro Hawk demonstration phase is to determine whether remote operation of high-end SIGINT systems is feasible, and what payload operator constraints might exist compared with those for manned aircraft. The company says remote real-time management of a payload in the class being developed has not previously been conducted using a HALE UAV.
EADS says the payload will be modular and scaleable, but declines to be drawn on whether versions could be flown on smaller UAVs.
EADS is containerising the prototype payload ground control station (GSS) for the trials. The GSS element will operate as an adjunct to Northrop Grumman's existing Global Hawk ground station, with payload data feeding through existing communications links. The company declines to provide details of the number of operator consoles to be used in either the demonstration or possible production variants. However, the human-machine interface for the operator stations will be displayed at Le Bourget in conjunction with a high-level SIGINT data simulation.
French competitions
In parallel to the AGS and Euro Hawk programmes, France's tactical MultiCapteurs MultiMission (MCMM) tactical and MALE requirements are likely to be a major focus for manufacturers at Le Bourget.
The French defence ministry launched the two competitions in October last year, and study phase contracts are due to be awarded to shortlisted bidders within weeks. The total value of both requirements, including in-service support, is €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion).
The MCMM requirement calls for 80 tactical air vehicles, 40 of which will be funded under France's 2003-8 multi-year defence capability development programme, with initial service entry in 2008. Variants are required to support battlefield visual reconnaissance and surveillance, target designation and electronic warfare roles.
The competition is expected to be a three-way fight. Dassault Sagem Tactical UAV, created in February this year, has flagged a bid based on derivatives of the Sperwer UAV but may also offer a new-generation low-observable tactical system. Thales is expected to try to leverage off its Watchkeeper bid and details may emerge at Le Bourget. EADS is also expected to make announcements on its approach.
The French air force's MALE requirement calls for 12 medium endurance air vehicles, with the first to enter service in 2009 at a cost of c1.1 billion. Contenders are also required to provide costed options on 12 further aircraft that would enter service in 2010-15 if acquired. The MALE systems are intended for reconnaissance and surveillance, target designation, theatre-communications and data relay missions.
The parallel launch of the two competitions is intended to provide options for common ground-based control and handling systems, air vehicle payload commonality, and a simplified route to integration with wider French command, control, communications and intelligence architectures.
The two competitions follow the ongoing interim overhaul of French UAV capabilities, initiated in mid-2000 to address surveillance and reconnaissance lessons that emerged from operations in Kosovo in 1999. Concerns about the limited range and sensor capabilities of the French army's Sagem Crecerelle systems and the marginal performance of EADS CL-289 deep-penetration drones deployed in Kosovo led to the creation of an interim tactical UAV requirement - designated SDTI (Systéme de Drone Tactique Intermediaire).
Sagem won the competition with an upgraded version of its Sperwer family, and the first of 15 air vehicles will enter operational service in the next few weeks. The SDTI systems will complement the Crecerelle fleet, including electronic warfare Crecerelle systems ordered in mid-1999, pending the longer-term replacement of both under MCMM.
The German army has opted to upgrade rather than replace its own CL-289s, with the first upgraded variants - now designated AOLOS-289 - handed over by EADS in April this year. Germany intends to keep the systems for at least five to eight more years, pending their replacement by a MALE or HALE capability.
The second interim French requirement, designated SIDM (Systéme Intermediaire de Drone MALE), will provide the French air force with a medium endurance capability. The joint EADS/IAI Eagle 1 system won the competition, with the first of three air vehicles to be delivered in September.
EADS is expected to bid for the MALE requirement with Eagle 2, under development in parallel with its Eagle 1 programme. Dassault Sagem Tactical UAV is yet to detail its approach. However, Sagem has previously worked with General Atomics and offered Horus, an RQ-1 Predator derivative, for the SIDM competition.
Source: Flight International
