Chris Jasper/LONDON Paul Lewis/WASHINGTON DC
Launch of the Airbus Industrie A3XX - which looked set to be delayed until March - could now take place next month, with an anticipated new wave of commitments expected to nudge orders-subject-to-launch towards the 50-aircraft mark. The transformation of the European consortium into the Airbus Integrated Company (AIC), which had also faced delays, now appears certain by year end.
Mike Turner, chief operating officer of BAE Systems (a 20% Airbus shareholder), says that "as commitments for the A3XX continue to come in we may be able to move earlier than some people had thought". The A3XX industrial launch had been understood to have slipped to late in the first quarter of next year, but Turner says a December date is now "30 per cent likely".
The formation of the AIC had also been on the slide, with Airbus chief executive Noel Forgeard warning that certification issues with relevant national authorities would delay the move until the first quarter, but Turner now says it is "90 per cent certain" that the AIC will happen this year.
A3XX commitments stand at 32 "orders" and 24 options, but Airbus senior vice president commercial John Leahy says Gulf carrier Emirates is looking to add three aircraft to its letter of intent (LoI) for five passenger aircraft and two freighters, plus five options. Australia's Qantas is also thought to be close to announcing an LoI for 10 aircraft, plus three extended-range Boeing 747-400Xs and a number of A330-200s.
Germany meanwhile has agreed to provide Airbus with DM2 billion ($900 million) in repayable A3XXlaunch aid, bringing the country into line with France, Spain and the UK. Airbus chief financial officer Dr Andreas Sperl says government funding will total $2.5 billion, corresponding to 23% of the total $10.7 billion development spend, and a third of the total to be raised by BAE and majority shareholder EADS, in line with a US-European Union funding agreement.
Sperl says a further $3.1 billion, or 30%, will come from risk-sharing partners, down on an initial 40% target. Nine are thought to be on board, but one, Saab, last week said a final decision was still "some way off". With a smaller contribution coming from risk-sharing partners, the Airbus partners themselves need to raise $5.1 billion, or 47% of the total.
Sperl says government aid will be paid back within 17 years, and that a third of the development cash will be spent on jigs and tooling which Airbus plans to write down over five years. Maximum exposure will come in 2005/6 and top $6.8 billion, with cashflow breakeven anticipated in 2011 based on a 20% return, although the A3XX business case for 1996-2021 does not take into account synergies from the AIC.
Production will reach four aircraft per month by 2008, with breakeven at "less than 250 aircraft."
Source: Flight International
