Replacing 20 old airframes currently in service with 36 new aircraft for maritime patrol always seemed like a stretch for the US Coast Guard.
It is not that the original plan to replace the Dassault HU-25 Falcon fleet was gold-plated - if anything, purchasing 36 EADS North America HC-144A Ocean Sentry aircraft likely underestimated the coast guard's requirements. But this is an era where few military aircraft fleets achieve the standard of a one-for-one replacement, and hybrid law enforcement/search-and-rescue civilian agencies have never enjoyed equivalent priority in the annual funding debates.
Inevitably, acquisition funding for the coast guard's maritime patrol aircraft programme began steadily declining - despite the fact that the requirement to buy 36 never changed, and the small number acquired so far have proven effective. Thirty-six HC-144s are still listed in the coast guard's $24.2 billion modernisation masterplan, which also covers the renewal of the agency's patrol ships and other aircraft, including helicopters, and plans to acquire two unmanned aircraft systems.
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| © Airbus Military Thirty-six HC-144s are listed in the Coast Guard's $24.2 billion modernisation masterplan - but will they all arrive? |
But the funding to complete the acquisition of all 36 HC-144s on schedule by 2014 has previously been trimmed to 20 aircraft.
The revised plan would have at least provided a one-for-one replacement with the retiring HU-25s, but it appears the agency's funding profile is unlikely to support even the lower amount.
The coast guard's leadership will now accept a minimum number of 17 new HC-144s to replace the 20 HU-25s by 2014, project manager Ron McIntire said in June.
Eleven of these 17 HC-144As have already been delivered, and another three are on order. But it is no longer clear if even the new "minimum" of 17 aircraft can be funded under the coast guard's acquisition plans. There are no funds in the fiscal 2012 budget for additional HC-144As, beyond the 14 already ordered.
Moreover, the pressure is only rising on the coast guard's acquisition accounts.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported earlier this year that the coast guard has overly optimistic spending forecasts. From 2013 to 2016, the agency plans to spend $1.9 billion annually on all acquisition programmes. That figure is $520 million higher than the average amount in the coast guard's acquisition budgets since 2007, the GAO added.
It is more likely in the current environment that the coast guard's acquisition accounts will hold stead - and perhaps even be reduced.
If the latter comes to pass, it is difficult to predict how the coast guard will be able to raise additional funds for more HC-144As - whether that means buying three more aircraft to reach the new minimum of 17, or six more aircraft to match the retiring HU-25s.
McIntire is not unaware of this predicament, and acknowledges the HC-144A is not on top of the priority list, even if more funding can somehow flow into the coast guard's spending accounts.
"The commandant's priority is the National Security Cutter," he says. "The second priority is the offshore cutter." More HC-144As fall somewhere further down the list.
The coast guard also lacks one of the convenient options available to government agencies in this situation.
When funding for a replacement disappears, the fall-back is often to extend the service life of the airframes not being replaced. The operator is left with older aircraft, but the size of the fleet is at least preserved.
The HU-25 maintenance contract expires in 2014, and the coast guard has already decided not to renew it, McIntire says.
The prospect of a fleet-size reduction below minimum requirements is not unfamiliar to the coast guard aviation branch - nor even to the maritime patrol fleet.
In the mid-1990s, the coast guard arbitrarily shrank the size of the HU-25 fleet by more than half, to 20 airframes, to address falling budgets.
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| © US Coast Guard A focus on endurance led to the selection of Ocean Sentrys |
The shortfall drove the requirement for a 36-aircraft replacement programme, when the coast guard launched the Deepwater acquisition programme in 2002.
The HU-25 replacement plan was selected to lead the field for the first new capability.
Replacing the jet-powered HU-25 fleet with turboprop-powered aircraft, such as the HC-144A, proved an inspired choice.
When the coast guard selected the HU-25 in the early 1980s, the agency had based its maritime patrol strategy on raw speed. Three decades later, the coast guard has shifted its focus away from speed and on to endurance.
As the number of airframes in the coast guard's aviation fleet dwindles, the long endurance of the HC-144A has become a critical asset. As a turboprop, the converted regional airliner has flown missions of up to 10h - a 150% improvement over the 4h limit of the HU-25.
That length of time allows the coast guard to maintain time-on-station rates with fewer HU-144As, as the jets are retired.
Each HU-25 is programmed to fly about 800h annually, but the HC-144A is tasked with 1,200h. "For every two HC-144s, I can take three Falcons out," says McIntire.
That is not to suggest that the coast guard can meet its maritime patrol requirements with fewer HC-144As than HU-25s.
According to the agency's analysis, the maritime patrol fleet already has a gap of tens of thousands of flight hours, compared to required levels. Replacing the HU-25 with the HC-144A on a one-to-one ratio increases available flight hours by 50%, but still only puts a dent in the overall shortfall. The only way to close that gap is to buy more aircraft.
Recent studies by the agency indicate that the shortfall is not even closed if all 36 HC-144As in the programme of record are eventually purchased. Seven years ago, the Rand think-tank published a report recommending that the coast guard should double the size of the aviation fleet to meet requirements.
Last year, the first phase of a fleet mix analysis suggested the agency should add between one and 29 more HC-144As to the 36 in the programme of record.
Such large budget increases are unlikely to be supported in the next few years, leaving McIntire's office with a shrinking fleet and few options.
Ideally, the coast guard would launch an upgrade that would remove two crew members aboard the HC-144A - those assigned to manage the palletised sensor and processing station - McIntire says.
The same job could be done on the ground by adding autonomous capabilities to the mission system, he adds.
That would free up more resources for other priorities, as well as take up to 181kg out of the airframe.
"Every time you take weight off it's a good thing," says McIntire, but he adds: "Under the budget constraints that we're in, there is not plan to do that for the foreseeable future."
Until then, the coast guard is likely to be stuck with the 14 aircraft currently on order.
From a contractual standpoint, Europe-headquartered EADS stands ready to convert as many as six options into orders - if the agency can find the funding.
"I don't think there's a real argument about how any aircraft they need," says Terry Cross, an EADS vice-president and retired vice commandant of the coast guard. "The only question is how many aircraft they can afford."
Source: Flight International
