Airbus and Boeing are optimistic that 2003 will represent the bottom of the current orders and deliveries cycle and that an industry recovery will begin next year.
"We remain confident that we can deliver our target of 300 aircraft this year," says Airbus president Noel Forgeard. The manufacturer has already booked over 150 orders this year, and forecasts that its total for the year will be "about 250" aircraft.
Airbus executive vice-president customer affairs John Leahy says the company has made arrangements to ensure the go-ahead of the delivery of 31 aircraft to Asian airlines affected by the crisis caused by the SARS virus. He says that financing deals have been arranged, and that some aircraft will be "parked for a couple of months, but all will be delivered".
Forgeard says he believes that that 2003 "might be the trough year" in order terms, and that the Airbus orderbook would currently support the delivery of 900 aircraft over the 2003-6 period, but there is still some uncertainty about the short-term outlook.
Boeing declines to estimate its order intake for the year, but says that it remains on target for its planned output of 280 aircraft. It has so far booked around 40 orders in 2003.
Citing "some glimmers of hope" that a recovery is under way, the US manufacturer expects output to be between 275 and 300 aircraft next year, depending on how quickly the airlines rebound.
"We think growth will get back to 2000 levels by the end of this year, and deliveries will start to pick up from 2005," says Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief executive Alan Mulally.
Airbus's Forgeard says although the downturn is "the most severe crisis our industry has ever seen", the company "remains profitable and continues to expand. You can imagine what we expect to achieve when the downturn ends."
Forgeard warns however that the next three years will be difficult for Airbus, and steps are under way to ride out the storm. A cash-saving effort has been in place since the beginning of the year, and next week the cost-saving programme announced earlier this year is being launched.
This programme is designed to reduce the European company's cost base by 10% - €1.5 billion ($1.76 billion) - in 2006 (Flight International, 22-28 April). "It will assess and challenge our whole way of working and liasing with suppliers. It will make it quicker and cleaner," says Forgeard.
Source: Flight International
