GUY NORRIS / LOS ANGELES DATA TABLES COMPILED BY ATI
New and derivative designs are in development as manufacturers predict huge demand for engines of all classes over the next 20 years
The search for new-technology engines to power Boeing's 7E7 is increasingly dominating the news from the big three engine makers. The final decision is expected by the middle of next year and will leave one of the three out of the race. What makes the competition more interesting, and the stakes more critical, is the evolution of the engine requirement towards a possible family of powerplants, rather than a single engine with various power ratings.
The relatively late decision to tailor the thrust requirements to the short-range 7E7, as well as the baseline and stretch models, was the reason the selection deadline was extended into 2004.
New opportunities
At the same time, it has created the first realistic opportunities for development of the long-awaited placement for the CF6, PW4000 and RB211 families, providing potential new power options for Boeing's 747 Advanced studies in particular. It also creates possible new opportunities for Airbus over and above its preliminary studies for next-generation A330 alternatives. With Boeing's 7E7 entry-into-service target of 2008, the requirement is firm and has kick-started a new set of engine studies into life.
At the top end of the thrust range, General Electric's GE90-115B is being prepared for its 2004 service entry on Boeing's 777-300ER, while its lower-thrust siblings begin to be upgraded using technology developed for the -115B, showing a new level of maturity for the 777 engine family. The next high-thrust power struggle also continues over the A380-800, with Rolls-Royce's Trent 900, lead engine for the programme, due to be certificated next October. GE and Pratt & Whitney's competing GP7200 is close behind, with slightly more orders, and is due for certification in 2005.
The engine is becoming an increasingly vital programme for P&W, which predicts that, over the next 20 years, 47% of all orders for civil engines of at least 18,000lb thrust (80kN) will be in the 66,000lb-thrust -plus class.
In current dollars, this represents around $153 billion out of a total market estimated at $329 million. Overall, the engine maker believes the market will require almost 42,000 new engines over the period, around 12,900 of which will be in the 66,000lb-plus bracket, over 24,000 in the 18,000-45,000lb class and almost 5,000 in the intermediate 46,000-65,000lb area.
R-R, which breaks down its market predictions slightly differently, is in close agreement with P&W and sees a need for around 11,500 engines worth $134 billion in the 65,000lb-thrust bracket between now and 2021. It is more bullish about the intermediate 45,000-65,000lb range, however, seeing a requirement for around 9,500 engines worth $76 billion. Coming closer to P&W again in the lower-thrust brackets in the 22,000-45,000lb range, it sees a requirement for almost 22,000 engines worth around $123 billion. Not surprisingly, engine value per unit decreases dramatically with lower size, a perspective reflected in a value of a "mere" $39 billion attributed to a forecast requirement of around 20,500 engines in the 5,500-10,000lb thrust bracket. In all, including turboprops and spares, R-R predicts a requirement for more than 97,000 engines over the next 20 years.
Growth potential
At the lower end of the thrust scale, 2003 has again seen more signs of the sustained growth potential of the regional jet market and a coming surge in small engines for personal and "mini" or microjets. GE's CF34 family, set, some say, to become the CFM56 of the next decade, continues to grow both in family members and market share. Flight tests of the CF34-10 for the Embraer 190/195 and Chinese AVIC I ARJ21 regional jet family are under way, and by 2005 the company estimates more than 2,500 CF34 engines will be in service in the 50- to 90-seat regional market. Around 500 CF34 engines were due to be delivered by the end of this year, and 450 are expected to be delivered in 2004. R-R, which is investigating new engine initiatives in the regional market to bridge the commercial gap between the AE3007 and the BR715, predicts a market for up to 3,800 new 50-seat aircraft and 3,600 70- to 90-seat aircraft over the next 20 years. On either end of these segments, it sees the need for almost 2,000 19- to 30-seat regionals and more than 1,500 110-seat sector jets. Embraer, surging forward with its 170/190 family plans, sees a requirement for around 8,450 regional jets between now and 2023. Of this, around 2,600 will be needed in the 30- to 60-seat sector, 2,900 in the 61- to 90-seat range, and 2,950 in the 91- to 120-seat range.
Of all the thrust brackets, perhaps the most intriguing and most unpredictable is the emerging microjet market. Pratt & Whitney Canada, with the PW610F/615F launched and in development, is taking it seriously and forecasts a rapid rise in deliveries from 2005 to a rate of more than 600 aircraft a year by around 2012. This 1,000-3,000lb thrust sector, it estimates, could be worth almost $1 billion a year as the popularity of the segment increases. As always with predictions, only time will tell.
Source: Flight International
