Tim Furniss/LONDON
Delays are leading to a build-up of components waiting to be launched into space for the International Space Station (ISS) - but the launch and arrival of the Zvezda service module should now help to move the project forward.
The delay to the launch of the Russian service module meant several Space Shuttle missions, to continue the assembly of the $60 billion ISS, remain grounded, while more ISS components continued to arrive at the Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF) at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida.
The SSPF was described as being 'chock-full' 12 months ago and is now 'bursting at the seams'.
Zvezda finally docked to the ISS on 26 July, allowing NASA to start an intensive programme of 10 Space Shuttle missions between September 2000 and October 2001 to continue the assembly and support of the 60 tonne ISS.
Russia is also committed to launching nine ISS-related missions, including seven Progress M1 unmanned tanker supply flights, but is already making ominous noises that it does not have enough money to complete the job.
The request came during the post-launch celebrations at the Baikonur Cosmodrome, after Zvezda finally got off the ground.
Yuri Semenov, director general of the Energia company that builds much of the ISS hardware, told Dan Goldin, NASA's exasperated administrator, that Russia needs more money if NASA wants the ISS assembly to stay on schedule. NASA has already bailed out Russia several times to keep it afloat.
Programme saved
However difficult this state of affairs may be for NASA, the planned Russian involvement in ISS probably saved the programme from the congressional axe in 1994.
Brewster Shaw, a former astronaut and vice president and general manager of ISS at Boeing, the ISS prime contractor, says: "There are always going to be crisis points. Any time you have more than one person in a programme you can expect things to happen differently."
The addition of Russian experience in long-term space station operations has made them a key partner, he says. "It is in everybody's best interests for a lot of reasons."
Russian delays have cost NASA around $5 billion more on the ISS than anticipated, but Shaw believes Russian involvement is the best thing. He adds, however: "How much manoeuvring or options the US Government has in the future I cannot guess."
The continuation of operations aboard the Mir Space Station still worries Americans. The commercial MirCorp organisation is funding missions and hopes to fully commercialise the space base and keep it operating for a few more years.
Shaw admits that even if Mir is operated as a commercial station, it places a drain on Russian resources.
space budgets
The continual bartering does not reflect just a lack of money in official space budgets, but also a lack of what has been described as "entrepreneurial enthusiasm", said John Pike, director of space policy at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington DC. This transformation is due to the connections Russia has made with American businesses.
Pike says, however, that Russia still has to learn that "private ownership is only one element of contemporary economic competitiveness and the commitment to Soviet-era management style of secrecy and exclusion of outside supervision" is a disadvantage.
Pike adds that further demands for more money for joint space activities are likely to continue as the Russian economy recovers, but the co-operative framework of the ISS can be of great benefit to both parties - and its other international partners. "This co-operation is helping to pave the way for the integration of Russia into the community of industrial democracies," he says.
It would be easy to blame Russia for previous and potential future delays but the fact is that the pressure is now on NASA and there is no guarantee it will meet its commitment.
Three-time Shuttle astronaut Shaw is elated at the safe docking of Zvezda. "It was an extremely significant event...we are all very pleased... I am elated...we are up and running," he told Flight International.
Even if Zvezda had been launched on time in April 1998 or on the later advertised dates, NASA would not have been able to launch some components according to the original schedule, says Shaw.
The project is the most complex and largest international co-operative venture ever attempted, so some deviation from the set schedule was to be expected.
US delays
Just because Zvezda has kept NASA waiting since April 1998 "doesn't mean that if it had been launched on time there would not have been delays on the US side", Shaw adds.
"Blaming the Russians and thinking that all will be OK now that Zvezda is up in orbit is incorrect." If the Zvezda module had launched on time some US components, such as the Destiny laboratory module, wouldn't have been ready anyway, Shaw admits.
Delays can sometimes be an advantage, he says. When a schedule is established, "you draw a line in the sand," but when the line changes it challenges engineers to make improvements.
As for the future, he says: "For us to think that we can get through the next five years without a hiccup is naïve. Something is going to happen to force us to change the schedule. We will just have to put up with it." He adds, "All you have to have is a launch pad Shuttle engine shutdown and the mission would be delayed a few weeks."
Shaw also expects that there will be in-orbit failures, which, as has already been demonstrated, will be fixed by crews. He anticipates that to keep to schedule, some components could be launched uncompleted, with further work carried out on them in orbit during later missions.
There is flexibility in the Shuttle assembly schedule, but not much. Actual assembly missions will have to go in a logical order. "You can't join something to something that has not been launched," he says.
But logistics flights, such as those using the Multi-Purpose Logistic Modules, could be flexible, though several missions will be difficult.
"Flight 4A/STS 97 Endeavour this December with the first power module is going to bea real good mission," says Shaw. But there are still plenty of opportunities for things to go wrong.
The mission involves the erection and deployment of the first set of solar arrays, and both the deployment and integration must "go right", he says. "It is a big set of solar panels. That is probably going to be the toughest mission to pull off."
Future issues could involve an in-orbit problem or an accident, he adds. "Something will happen, but overcoming problems is one of the things that the aerospace industry does best."
The problems are ahead, but for the moment Zvezda has taken over the control of ISS.
"There are always going to be crisis points. Any time you have more than one person in a programme you can expect things to happen differently." - Brewster Shaw, BoeingSource: Flight International
