Rolls-Royce is predicting that the emerging markets of China, India and Russia will help push future growth in the business jet market to $61 billion over the next 20 years.

The engine supplier says medium- to-long-range jets will dominate in terms of aircraft and engine value over this period. “The growth trend for business jet deliveries now exceeds the pace of narrowbody commercial airliner deliveries,” says Alan Stiley, R-R vice- president for marketing, corporate and regional aircraft. “The largest segment in terms of engine value will remain the medium, long-range and ultra-long-range aircraft, where Rolls-Royce is well positioned with its BR710 and Tay engines. In fact, the market share by aircraft value for these aircraft will remain near 70%,” he adds.

R-R forecasts that 48,000 engines, valued at $61 billion, will be needed over the next 20 years to meet demand for 23,000 new corporate jets from very light jets through to business jetliners.

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Demand is also being fueled by the business community’s increasing recognition of the value of using business jets as a productivity tool. In addition, evolving fractional programs are expanding the market by lowering the cost of entry and ownership.

The company predicts deliveries of 15,400 aircraft in the next 20 years, including 3,650 in the large business jet category, such as the ultra- long-range Bombardier and Gulfstream families, which are powered by R-R BR710 engines.

In the corporate jet market, R-R predicts substantial growth in each segment, with a 32% increase in deliveries from 2005 to 2014 and an additional 9% from 2015 to 2024.

While North America is expected to remain the largest market for business jet deliveries in the next 20 years, Stiley predicts that China, India and Russia are expected to witness a large increase in activity. The forecast for these countries – based on the key drivers of economic activity, infrastructure growth and market liberalization – is that 500-700 business jets will be delivered over the next decade, an increase of 600%. 

Source: Flight Daily News