Max Kingsley-Jones/LONDON
The booming regional market continued its climb skyward last year, as more airlines made the inevitable move to jets. The regional jet order backlog has increased by almost 50%, putting further pressure on the few turboprops still in production.
Last year represented the cross-over point in the regional market, with deliveries of jets decisively putting turboprops in the shade for the first time. The writing was on the wall in 1998, when jet shipments almost matched those of their propeller-driven rivals.
Jets stole the lead in 1999 after several years of sustained order growth, as firstly US and, more recently, European commuter airlines turned their backs on the once ubiquitous turboprop, causing a steady fall in shipments. This manifested itself last year when turboprop deliveries tumbled 30% on the previous 12 months, to just 120 aircraft, while the regional jet manufacturers' output rose by 40%, to 217 airframes. Significantly, the overall market has remained virtually static, with total regional deliveries rising by only nine units to 338 aircraft.
Last year's watershed was marked by the final departure of two more turboprop producers - Saab delivered its few remaining 340s and 2000s, and British Aerospace shipped the last J41. At the same time, deliveries of Fairchild's first regional jet, the 328JET, began, while Embraer's output rose as its 37-seat ERJ-135 came on line. The Brazilian company's 97 deliveries put it top in the jet rankings for the first time, and 15 units ahead of rival Bombardier.
While little has changed in the overall delivery tally, the opposite is true of orders. Business was up by 110 aircraft (20%), to 640. As jet orders rocketed by almost 30%, to 529, turboprop contracts tumbled again - down a quarter to 112. The backlog rose by 46% to 880, pushing the total backlog to over 1,000 aircraft, despite a 10% fall in the number of turboprops on order.
Jet sales last year were driven by the smaller Bombardier, Embraer and Fairchild models (ie, 50 seats and less), while orders for the new 70-seat-plus Fairchild and Embraer offerings also made important contributions. In gross order terms, Fairchild took the overall spoils, with 178 orders, marginally pipping Bombardier.
Just two companies - ATR and Bombardier - remain serious producers of mainline turboprops, while Raytheon continues to produce about three 19-seat 1900Ds a month. Lead time on all the turboprops(other than Bombardier's recently introduced Q400) can be measured in months rather than years, and the market for new aircraft is increasingly muddied by the large number of secondhand airframes made available as they are replaced by jets.
Bombardier is in the intriguing, if confusing, position, of offering competing jet and turboprop types. This strategy ensures, however, that it remains the clear leader in regional manufacturing, with 230 orders and 107 deliveries last year across both product ranges.
As other key producers have dropped out, or introduced new jet families, ATR finds itself as the last major regional supplier offering only turboprops. The Franco-Italian consortium, however, also has links to a regional jet family - through the shareholding that ATR parent Aerospatiale Matra holds in Embraer. ATR says that some sort of regional partnership is "logical", but much will depend on Italian partner Alenia's choice of defence ally.
ATR believes the market for turboprops will "remain stable at 60-70 aircraft a year" in the coming decade. Annual production is being cut from the 35 aircraft of recent years to 30, it says. "We believe the rush for regional jets has slowed", it adds.
Whether ATR's faith will be rewarded remains to be seen, but, given the evidence, only a brave manufacturer would pin its faith purely on a propeller-driven product line for the long term.
Source: Flight International
