GEOFF THOMAS
Speaking in Paris yesterday evening, Rolls-Royce chairman Sir Ralph Robins predicted that strong growth will continue in both major and regional aircraft sectors, in addition to the corporate jet market. This will result in a demand for more than 100,000 civil aero engines over the first two decades of the new millennium.
"This total business is worth an estimated $465 billion and the forecast shows continuing and growing demand across civil aerospace markets," says Robins. "Rolls-Royce is well-positioned to compete in all sectors.
Predictions
"These predictions assume that the airline industry will continue to be liberalised, without constraints imposed on its ability to offer new services."
Compared with the previous Rolls-Royce civil aerospace market forecast, the new statistics predict demand for 17,000 more engines, giving additional revenues of around $117 billion.
With annual traffic growth estimated at 5.1%, global passenger numbers are expected to double within the period of the forecast. Asia Pacific will have the highest growth rate at 7% and by 2020, a third of world traffic will be carried by airlines in that region.
Using data from a variety of industry sources, including input from the world's leading airlines, Rolls-Royce predicts that the strong growth in the market for aircraft of more than 100 seats will require 71,000 engines with a market value of $415 billion between now and 2020. Although the largest sector of the forecast measured by engine deliveries is the 22-45,000lb (98-200kN) thrust category (Airbus A320, Boeing 737 and B-757 aircraft) the dominant portion of the market in value terms is for engines of 65,000lb thrust and above, powering Airbus A330, A380 and Boeing 777 airliners.
The forecast for corporate jets over the next couple of decades estimates the need for 30,000 engines worth $50 billion. Sir Ralph says that there has been a number of milestones in the company's defence business - the most recent being last week's maiden flights of two helicopters powered by the T800 engine developed by the Light Helicopter Turbine Engine Company (LHTEC), a R-R/Honeywell consortium.
Prototype
The Boeing Sikorsky RAH-66 Comanche prototype flew on 6 June, while the AgustaWestland Super Lynx 300 demonstrator made its maiden flight six days later.
Because of insufficient data, Rolls-Royce's forecast doesn¹t include an estimated requirement for proposed new-generation near-supersonic or transonic aircraft, although the general assumption is that they would operate long-haul services, so reducing the anticipated numbers of wide-bodied aircraft in that sector.
Source: Flight Daily News
