Rolls-Royce predicts that the emerging markets of China, India and Russia will help push growth in the business jet market to $61 billion over the next 20 years. The engine maker says medium-to-long-range jets will dominate over this period.
“The growth trend for business jet deliveries now exceeds the pace of narrow body commercial airliner deliveries,” says Alan Stiley, Rolls-Royce vice-president for marketing, corporate and regional aircraft. “The largest segment in terms of engine value will remain the medium, long-range and ultra long-range aircraft, where Rolls-Royce is well positioned with its BR710 and Tay engines.
“In fact the market share by aircraft value for these aircraft will remain near 70%,” he adds.
Rolls-Royce forecasts that 48,000 engines, valued at $61 billion, will be needed over the next 20 years to meet demand for 23,000 new corporate jet aircraft from very light jets through business jetliners.
Demand is also being fueled by the business community’s increasing recognition of the value of using business jets as a productivity tool. Fractional programmes are expanding the market by lowering the cost of entry and ownership.
The company predicts deliveries of 15,400 aircraft in the next 20 years, including 3,650 in the large business jet category, such as the ultra long-range Bombardier and Gulfstream families, which are powered by Rolls-Royce BR710 engines.
In the corporate jet market, Rolls-Royce predicts substantial growth in each segment, with a 32% increase in deliveries from 2005 to 2014 and an additional 9% from 2015 to 2024.
While North America is expected to remain the largest market for business jet deliveries in the next 20 years, Stiley predicts that China, India and Russia will witness a large increase in activity. The forecast for these countries – based on the key drivers of economic activity, infrastructure growth and market liberalisation – is that 500-700 business jets will be delivered over the next decade, an increase of 600%.
Source: Flight Daily News
