For the first time in its history, Aeroflot has published its own outlook for the Russian airliner market, predicting the acquisition of 417 new aircraft with over 80 seats by 2015, and 785 regional aircraft.
The forecast is based on assumptions that Russia's gross national product (GNP) will continue to experience 4-5% annual growth, which will result in an 8% increase in air traffic. Last year Russia's GNP rose by 6.4%, bringing a 14% growth in passenger traffic. If GNP growth continues at 5% through to 2015, then the country's passenger traffic will be double today's, at 43-45 million.
For 2002-2015 forecast deliveries are53 aircraft in the long-range/widebody category; 215 in the medium-range/single aisle sector; and 149 in the short-range market above 80 seats. The 785 deliveries in the regional sector are forecast as 260 with less than 25 seats; 215 with 25-50 seats; and 310 with 50-80 seats. Aeroflot says that 75% of Russia's airliner fleet is aged 10 years or older, only 448 aircraft comply with Chapter 3 noise requirements and just 241 are capable of being modifed to comply.
Source: Flight International
