GUY NORRIS / LOS ANGELES
Boeing moves into next optimisation cycle as airlines return to the table and traffic shows signs of recovery
Boeing is starting to define the final loads, flight-control laws and overall shape of the Sonic Cruiser, following the completion of the first cycle of windtunnel tests. It is also resuming talks on the high-speed aircraft with airlines that have started to return to Everett for the first time since last September.
"We now have discussions going on with up to 15 major airlines," says Sonic Cruiser programme vice president Walt Gillette.
Boeing has also completed the initial network analysis work enabling it to put a value on speed, and in turn, help define the optimum capacity of the Mach 0.98 aircraft. Overall definition of the aircraft is expected to be completed by the end of next year.
A senior source at one of the key airlines involved in the discussions says Boeing has assumed "premium ticket-pricing to make the economics work", adding that he is not convinced that the aircraft, as specified, offers enough time-saving to justify it.
The aircraft size is now firmly defined as between 190 seats in mostly premium configuration seating, to mixed loads of up to 250. Talks have resumed with potential airlines on a "one-to-one" basis, says Gillette, who adds the "working-together" idea used in the development of the 777 is not as easy to apply in the early phases of the Sonic Cruiser. "With a new type of aircraft like this, there is more competition between them [the airlines] on how they might use it," he says. However, Gillette adds that pan-airline teams will be formed.
Boeing is meanwhile moving into the next optimisation cycle update. This builds on initial work and will help refine materials selection, build strategies, define systems and fine-tune the aerodynamic shape. This phase also includes organising suppliers to join its technology development team and, although it was originally targeted for completion by April, it is now widely expected to drift to mid-year.
A critical element of the Boeing plan is to select optmised system solutions from packages created by the first and second-tier suppliers who are being urged to forge partnerships to bid for Sonic Cruiser work. The partnerships involve risk-share participation.
Boeing has expressed surprise at the speed of recovery in airline traffic, but says that airlines will only start ordering aircraft again when they regain profitability. "Europe is the real surprise," says Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice-president marketing Randy Baseler. "Traffic is rebounding faster than most analysts, and certainly we, thought." Baseler's view last November was that global traffic growth would decline at least by an annual 6%. Now he expects "traffic to equal pre-11 September levels by the end of the year". The manufacturer expects "deeply discounted fares to expire gradually", so that by the end of this year, yields should also "greatly improve". But the airline industry will only "be in a position" to place orders in the second half of mid-2003, when it will have returned to profitability.Source: Flight International
