BOEING'S REVELATION that it will not be competing in the very-large-airliner market with a derivative of the 747, thus apparently leaving Airbus Industrie's A3XX with a clear run, has certainly raised more questions than answers.
While attention has focused on Boeing's doubts about lack of "sufficient market demand" to develop the 747, the company has far from ruled out its presence in the market for an airliner with 500 or more seats. It says that studies for such an aircraft "-remain a priority". There is plenty of evidence that Boeing never saw the 747-500/600 derivatives as more than a medium-term solution. The unveiling of longer-term proposals for an all-new 747-700 in September made that clear.
While Boeing may soon be back, the cancellation of the 747-X nevertheless provides the European aerospace industry with an opportunity to make the running in the very-large-aircraft market. The consortium must still answer some fundamental questions, however. Not least is the need to reassure itself and its potential investment partners that there is a market to justify the likely $10 billion-plus development cost.
Boeing has been highly public in its pessimism over the likely size of that market, compared with its European rival. For certain, the market, in terms of the number of airlines, will be small in the short term, with little more than half a dozen of the world's major flag carriers having been in serious discussion regarding orders for the 747-X. It appears to be this lack of immediate demand that persuaded Boeing to take the derivative route in the first place.
The US manufacturer seems to have hoped to mop up short-term demand from the likes of British Airways and Singapore Airlines with a derivative 747 until a broader market for a new-aircraft programme developed some time in the next decade. In the process, Boeing may have also hoped that it could retain a monopoly in the large-aircraft market, which it has held for more than 30 years with the 747.
As the 747-X definition evolved in conjunction with the potential customers, however, Boeing was forced to introduce changes, such as fly-by-wire. In the end, it found itself with a derivative aircraft which would have required a considerable level of investment to launch, but which was ultimately still a derivative.
To make matters worse, Airbus, with no derivative route, was pressing ahead with the all-new A3XX, and the airlines began to play one off against the other. Boeing found itself in an uncomfortable holding pattern while customers waited for the Airbus proposal. As a result, Boeing saw its one clear advantage, the 747-X's earlier availability, being eroded. With no sign of a firm order from any of its prime targets the programme has ended.
When the 747-X was poised for launch, Airbus was adamant that it would continue with the A3XX programme and stick to its own timetable, which trailed the US aircraft by several years. The Europeans believed that the market was large enough for the two aircraft, and was encouraged by Boeing's decision to take the derivative route, which could not have been a viable long-term opponent to the all-new A3XX.
Yet Boeing's decision to abandon the race does not on its own guarantee Airbus a marketplace. For some sceptics within the industry, it has only served to re-inforce doubts about the potential size of the market. The Airbus forecast that there is a requirement for more than 1,000 large aircraft over the next 20 years had been in stark contrast to Boeing's predictions of only half that number.
Airbus views the high-capacity market as its destiny, and will no doubt forge ahead with the A3XX, but it will have to continue looking over its shoulder at Boeing. Just as anxious airline customers encouraged Airbus to firm up its A3XX plans as they negotiated with Boeing on the 747-X, so they will continue to keep an eye on what alternatives may yet emerge from Seattle.
While Airbus might take some delight from Boeing's embarrassing climb-down, it must view the future with caution. If Boeing is to compete in the market now, it will have to produce an all-new aircraft, which will ultimately provide a considerably tougher competitor to the A3XX than the derivative 747-X.
Source: Flight International
