Graham Warwick
In 1957, British defence minister Duncan Sandys made the decision which, over time, has been distilled into the fateful phrase "no more manned aircraft". His faith in unmanned weaponry proved premature and, after many failures and few successes, the military remains wary of unmanned systems.
Now US Senate Armed Services Committee chairman John Warner has pronounced that, within 10 years, one third of the USA's deep strike aircraft will be unmanned. Is history simply repeating itself?
Unmanned systems are certainly attracting the attention of defence planners once again, but this time there is a difference: unmanned aircraft are now viewed as adjuncts to, not replacements for, manned aircraft.
The impact on manned aircraft development, although not as severe as the cataclysm which engulfed UK industry following Sandys' decision, will still be substantial. The ability to consider integrated manned and unmanned solutions promises to revolutionise defence planning.
A glimpse of the future was provided at Farnborough by Saab Technologies, which unveiled its Netdefence concept - an internet-based command and control (C2) architecture under study for the Swedish armed forces, and intended to be fully fielded by 2020.
An integral part of the Netdefence concept is a smorgasbord of unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) designed to operate alongside the Swedish air force's main manned aircraft - the airborne early warning (AEW) S100 Argus and JAS39 Gripen multirole fighter.
Like Argus and Gripen, Saab's proposed Gladen AEW and Skuadern strike reconnaissance UAVs would be nodes on the C2 web, connected by broadband network and commanded by desktop computer and mouse.
The high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) Gladen would carry Ericsson's Erieye AEW radar, Carabas foliage-penetration radar, synthetic-aperture imaging radar or other surveillance payload. The medium-altitude Skuadern would reconnoitre targets for attack by the manned Gripen, which would leave behind a Getoga UAV to assess the damage and monitor recovery efforts, calling in a second strike if necessary. Saab also has a design for an unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) to take on missions too dangerous for Gripen.
For a small nation, Sweden's plans are ambitious, but not unique. The USA has much the same vision of the future and is turning it into reality.
Much of the credence now being given to unmanned systems can be attributed to the success of one programme - the Northrop Grumman RQ-4A Global Hawk. Although barely out of the technology demonstration stage, the USAir Force is moving ahead aggressively with plans to use this HALEUAV to augment its scarce Lockheed U-2 manned reconnaissance aircraft. The USAF has even asked Northrop Grumman whether it is feasible to accelerate the Global Hawk's development to avoid the need to restart the U-2 production line - confirmation that unmanned systems now influence decisions on manned aircraft.
During Farnborough, Northrop Grumman announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with EADS (European Aeronautic Defence and Space) to co-operate on HALEUAVs. A joint project team will evaluate a common unmanned system approach to meeting urgent European NATO requirements for airborne stand-off intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms.
The agreement raises the prospect that European NATO nations could opt for Global Hawks as a cheaper alternative to manned ISR aircraft as they race to close the capability gap with US forces. Australia, meanwhile, is looking at Global Hawk for coastal and maritime patrol and will conduct a month-long in-country evaluation of the UAV in April next year.
Maritime missions look to be promising Global Hawk applications. Northrop Grumman has received a contract to study a hybrid manned/unmanned solution to the US Navy's Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft (MMA) requirement. Using a HALE UAV, the company argues, will reduce the number of manned aircraft required while multiplying their effectiveness.
Whether MMA emerges as a new airframe, an airliner derivative or an upgraded Lockheed P-3, augmenting the aircraft with a $15 million Global Hawk would save money, Northrop Grumman says. HALE UAVs could be used for the long-endurance missions - Global Hawk has already criss-crossed the Atlantic in one mission and will cross the Pacific to Australia next year - extending the life of upgraded P-3s or reducing the performance requirements on a new airframe.
Using MMAs and UAVs in co-operative engagements could also reduce crew workload, says Northrop Grumman. The company calculates its hybrid manned/unmanned system could save the US Navy at least $2 billion over a totally manned aircraft solution to the MMA requirement.
It is only a matter of time before similar hybrid solutions are proposed for strike aircraft requirements. The US Air Force, Navy and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency are already working on a UCAV technology demonstration, while the UK's Future Offen-sive Air Capability study to replace the Panavia Tornado GR4 is likely to result in a strike system combining manned aircraft, UCAVs and long-range cruise missiles.
Boeing will roll out the first of two X-45 UCAV demonstrators later this month, with flight testing to begin next year. The programme is to culminate in a mission in which the two UCAVs autonomously will detect, identify and strike a surface-to-air missile site while simultaneously evading enemy air defences.
It seems a huge leap of faith for the USAF to extrapolate from a successful HALEUAV technology demonstration to the unmanned suppression of enemy air defences, from the slow and long-flying Global Hawk to the low and fast-flying - and lethal - UCAV, but other projects will provide some of the missing links.
One is another technology demonstration, the Miniature Air-Launched Interceptor (MALI) - again involving Northrop Grumman. This is intended to prove that a swarm of inexpensive, self-organising, lethal UAVs can counter incoming cruise missiles.
If successful, unmanned system demonstrations like MALI and UCAV are certain to result in a profound shift in defence planning. Hybrid manned/unmanned solutions to military requirements will become realistic options. Saab's Netdefence concept may not look so far-fetched after all.
Source: Flight International
