The UK government's long-awaited proposal on future airport development has recommended a second runway for London Stansted and left open the possibility of a third runway at London Heathrow in the 2015-20 period.
The UK government has made plain that it sees a need for two new runways in the south east of England by 2030. A third runway at Heathrow would require environmental limits to be met, and the white paper recommends that land should be set aside at London Gatwick for a second runway should this prove impossible. However, mixed-mode operation could hike Heathrow capacity in the meantime.
The proposal says further development at Heathrow could only be considered if it resulted in no net increase in the total area of the 57dBA noise contour compared to summer 2002, an area of 127km2 (49 miles2). However, the government says even with "aggressive assumptions" about technological benefits in the airline and motor industry, pollution from aircraft and cars would exceed European limits on NO2 that will apply from 2010. The government says a gradual introduction of new capacity would help solve this problem, and meet concerns about the impact on the region's tight labour and housing markets.
The proposal commits the government to look into the possibility of economic incentives to help reduce noise and emissions at Heathrow. In the meantime, however, it is willing to increase utilisation of the existing two runways through mixed-mode operation during peak hours. At present the two runways are generally operated in a segregated mode, with one used for take-offs and one used for landings. There is a daily switch around at 15:00.
The government is to undertake a review of this system, including the Cranford agreement, which prohibits westerly take offs on the north runway, and westerly preference for arrivals, which increases noise over the densely populated areas of south and south west London. Mixed-mode operations could increase capacity by as much as 15%, but is likely to meet stiff opposition from areas that would lose their periods of respite from aircraft noise.
Stansted, meanwhile, is expected to get a new runway by around 2011-12. The proposal says that given the lack of capacity elsewhere in London, a new runway at Stansted will be necessary to prevent growth being stifled. The government believes the capacity crunch will mean that demand for the new runway from airlines will be strong.
British Airways had been threatening legal action if Stansted was preferred over Heathrow, but seems to have been pacified by the prospect of progress at Heathow. "For the first time, we have a forward-looking aviation policy," says BA chief executive Rod Eddington. Virgin Atlantic Airways is happy with the report, as are Ryanair and easyJet, although bmi is concerned that development at Stansted would require cross-subsidisation by BAA from Heathrow revenues. Elsewhere, Birmingham and Edinburgh are earmarked for second runways, and a new airport in central England is ruled out.
The proposal makes clear the government's support for emissions trading for aviation, and the UK will make this a priority during its presidency of the European Union in 2005.
COLIN BAKER LONDON
Source: Airline Business
